Russia Warns NATO of Nuclear Response as Baltic Tensions Reach New Highs
Escalating Tensions Between Russia and NATO Over Kaliningrad
By Lili Bayer and Mark Trevelyan
Russia's Nuclear Warning to NATO
BRUSSELS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Russia has warned NATO it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave that borders the Baltic Sea.
In a document sent to NATO and seen by Reuters, Moscow accused the alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course" that entailed "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict".
The document said this included the possibility of "Russian strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance's member states right from the outset".
"Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country," the diplomatic note said.
Kaliningrad: A Strategic Flashpoint
The warning highlighted Moscow's urgent concern at what it has presented as a growing NATO threat to Kaliningrad, a heavily militarised Russian territory that is wedged between Poland and Lithuania and is slightly bigger than the US state of Connecticut.
Russian and NATO Rhetoric Intensifies
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, in a commentary on the ministry's website, cited statements by dignitaries from NATO states which she said demonstrated "Russophobia" and a readiness to wage war with Moscow.
These figures, Zakharova wrote, "need to be brought back down to earth. We hope that our warnings will be heard by those to whom they are addressed."
"If Europe attacks Russia, it will be a completely different sort of war – a very short war."
NATO's Response to Russian Threats
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance had responded to Russia's message by declaring: "We are a defensive alliance. And stop the nuclear threats. This is absolutely not called for and not helpful."
In its response to the Russian document, seen by Reuters, NATO also said that none of its "exercises or activities pose a threat to the territory of the Russian Federation".
"We call upon the Russian Federation to end its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We urge the Russian Federation to refrain from increasingly reckless behaviour towards the Allies and to cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric," it said.
Asked if the risk of nuclear weapons being used against the Baltics was now real, Rutte told a defence conference in Brussels hosted by broadcaster Euronews: "No, it's not. Putin knows that he can never win (against) NATO, so I don't take this that seriously."
Risk of Miscalculation and Escalation
RISK OF MISCALCULATION
Expert Analysis on Escalation Risks
Nikolai Sokov, a Vienna-based nuclear analyst and former Russian diplomat, said it was becoming increasingly hard for Western countries to keep stepping up their support for Ukraine without tipping into direct confrontation with Moscow.
He said the Russian warning may indicate that hardliners are gaining influence in a debate over how to respond to Western actions that include arms supplies to Kyiv, new sanctions on Moscow, interceptions of Russian ships, frequent military exercises and intelligence flights near Kaliningrad.
"They (Russia) expect more action, including a blockade of the Baltic Sea - just below the level of war in European calculation, but for them this will be open war. I see a risk of mutual miscalculation," Sokov said.
In an online interview, he said Russia and Europe were on a collision course. Both sides needed caution and calculation.
Instead of this, the Europeans were applying "full-court pressure" and Russia was delivering a serious warning that this was highly risky, Sokov added.
Hybrid Warfare Accusations and Diplomatic Fallout
EUROPE SAYS IT FACES 'HYBRID WAR', RUSSIA DENIES IT
Diplomatic Statements and Accusations
In addition to the private warning, Russian embassies in at least three European countries have issued statements in the past three days accusing NATO of escalating tensions through military exercises and planning scenarios involving Kaliningrad.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described these as diplomatic reminders to "hotheads in Europe".
Worsening Relations Since the Ukraine Invasion
Relations, already dire since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have sharply worsened this year, with European governments accusing Moscow of stepping up a "hybrid war" on the continent through acts including sabotage and arson.
Russia denies that, and rejects repeated statements by Western politicians that it is gearing up for a possible military attack on a NATO country.
European and NATO Responses
A NATO diplomat said: "I would say that the Russian letter is only another Russian attempt to intimidate Europeans, and that the response by NATO is firm and responsible. (It) reaffirms that we will not be dissuaded from supporting Ukraine."
A senior European defence official said: "(This is the) first time since (the) Cold War that Russia is threatening us like this. So this is serious."
(Reporting by Lili Bayer in Brussels and Mark Trevelyan in London, Additional reporting by Andrew Gray and Sabine Siebold, Editing by Timothy Heritage, Ron Popeski and Alistair Bell)
