Germany set for record trade deficit with Asia-Pacific in 2026, report says

Germany Projected for Record Asia-Pacific Trade Deficit in 2026, GTAI Says

Germany's Changing Trade Dynamics with Asia-Pacific

By Maria Martinez

Record Trade Deficit Forecast for 2026

BERLIN, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Germany's trade deficit with Asia-Pacific is set to hit a record of nearly €146 billion ($163 billion) in 2026 as falling exports to China outweigh growing sales elsewhere in the region, according to a report by Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) seen by Reuters.

The figures highlight the growing challenge facing German exporters in China, once one of their most important overseas markets, as Chinese companies expand domestic production of advanced technology, machinery and electric vehicles.

Exports to 29 core Asia-Pacific economies are expected to fall 3.2% this year to €185.3 billion, while imports are forecast to rise 6.4% to €330.9 billion, the state-owned trade promotion agency said.

Political Response and Strategic Alliances

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is visiting Japan, South Korea and Singapore from Monday to Friday. On Tuesday he called for European and Asian middle powers to build a strategic alliance in trade, technology and security. 

Impact of China on German Trade

China's Weaker Demand Hits German Exporters

CHINA'S WEAKER DEMAND HITS GERMAN EXPORTERS    

China accounts for around half of Germany's goods trade with Asia-Pacific and has an outsized effect on the overall figures, GTAI said.

Excluding China, German exports to the region would grow by 2.8% in 2026, while the trade deficit with Asia-Pacific would narrow to just under €35 billion.

German machinery exports to China fell 18% in the first seven months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to the report. Automotive exports dropped 30% over the same period.

German car sales in China have nearly halved from a peak of more than 5 million vehicles, GTAI said, as local manufacturers gain ground in electric cars and benefit from control over battery supply chains.

Emerging Markets: India and Southeast Asia

India, Southeast Asia Gain Ground

INDIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA GAIN GROUND

India is becoming a more important market and supplier for German companies, GTAI said.

German exports to India have nearly doubled over the past decade, as have imports from the South Asian country. 

Imports are also becoming more diversified. While clothing remains important, German companies are increasingly buying pharmaceutical products and machine components from India, the report said.

Japan and ASEAN: Stability and Growth

Japan remains a relatively stable market for German companies despite the yen's sharp fall against the euro and dollar over the past six years, which has eroded Japanese purchasing power.

GTAI expects German exports to the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to grow faster than imports in 2026, helped by aircraft deliveries. 

Over the longer term, the region is becoming increasingly important as a source of electronics and electrical equipment, moving beyond its traditional role as a supplier of clothing and footwear.

Exchange Rate Information

($1 = 0.8961 euros)

(Reporting by Maria Martinez and Christian Kraemer. Editing by Mark Potter)