Gulf oil flows dip in October from post-Iran war high, data shows

Gulf Oil Exports Dip in October as Shipping Risks Rise in Strait of Hormuz

By Ahmad Ghaddar

October Export Data and Shipping Risks

LONDON, Nov 3 - Gulf oil exports dipped in October from September's levels, which were the highest since the Iran war started, data from two ship-tracking companies showed, although both said the figures could be revised upwards as more details on shipments emerge.

Faced with intensifying attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, which reached a record in October, tankers have also stepped up efforts to avoid detection, making Gulf oil flows harder to track and raising the likelihood of further revisions to preliminary export data.

Preliminary Export Figures

Flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to Vortexa. That marks a drop from 18.9 million bpd in September but still represents roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

"October data shows Middle East seaborne oil exports have pulled back slightly from recent post-war highs on heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz," Vortexa analyst George Morris said.

Challenges in Tracking Shipments

The October figure is more likely to be revised up than down because many shuttle tankers going through the Strait switch off tracking signals as a safety measure, Vortexa said. This means satellite imagery is often needed to confirm shipments, creating a reporting lag.

Comparative Data from Kpler

Data from another company, Kpler, also showed a drop in shipments, with crude and condensate flows down about 1 million bpd from September. Kpler also said an upward revision was likely.

Export Trends by Product Type and Country

Crude vs. Refined Product Exports

Recovery Rates and Volumes

Vortexa sharply revised up the September figure compared with the data it made available to Reuters in early October, as more information on tankers became available, the company said.

Crude and condensate exports averaged 14.0 million bpd in October, or about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports averaged 3.1 million bpd, or just over half of normal volumes, Vortexa said.

Country-Level Export Changes

At a country level, Vortexa said Saudi Arabia's exports were steady compared with September, while the UAE recorded the largest decline. Iraq, Oman and Kuwait all exported less, the figures showed.

Regional Flows and Exclusions

Kpler's figures on crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman show an average of about 16.1 million bpd in October, down from 17.09 million bpd in September.

Both companies' figures exclude Iran, which is not exporting due to the US blockade.

(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar, editing by Alex Lawler and Tomasz Janowski)