Challenges for Ukraine in Holding Elections While at War
Main Obstacles to Wartime Elections in Ukraine
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Security Considerations
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said he was prepared to hold elections if the United States and Kyiv's European allies could ensure the security of the vote. U.S. President Donald Trump has previously argued that elections should be held.
Ukraine, which last held elections in 2019, has been under martial law since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Martial law bans elections for security reasons.
Fighting is raging along more than 1,200 km (750 miles) in Ukraine's east, south and north. Hundreds of Russian drones and missiles regularly pound Ukrainian cities and towns far from the front line. Electricity supplies are disrupted due to Russian attacks on the power sector and other energy infrastructure.
Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Ukrainians oppose the idea of elections during the war.
Legislative and Logistical Hurdles
Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst, said an air ceasefire at the very least was a vital first step to start considering a vote. He said Ukraine would need to create the legislative framework for the elections from scratch, including a new law to spell out timing, rules and procedures. Fesenko estimated that about six months would be required to do that.
Kyiv will also need to preempt any possible manipulation attempts by Russia, analysts said.
International and Political Pressures
Russia has said Zelenskiy is illegitimate because his term ran out in May 2024 and so cannot sign peace deals on Ukraine's behalf. Trump criticised the lack of elections in an interview with Politico in December, saying it was time for a vote.
Ukrainian Voters: Displacement and Access
Millions of Ukrainians would face difficulties accessing polling stations. Updating the State Register of Voters to record who can vote and where would be challenging, analysts and officials said.
Ukrainians Abroad and Internally Displaced
Data show that more than 4.4 million Ukrainians had temporary protection status in the European Union as of end-June, requiring Ukraine to organise hundreds of polling stations across Europe.
Just under 4 million Ukrainians are internally displaced within the country, the U.N. migration agency said last month. Analysts said registering all displaced people would not be straightforward and would divert time and funds from defence.
Military and Occupied Territories
About 1 million people serve in Ukraine's defence forces. Arranging a free and fair vote on a drone-infested front line would be dangerous and may require legislative changes.
Ukrainian officials estimated that as of 2024, 4.5 million adult Ukrainians remained behind those front lines in Russian-occupied territories. Russia controls about 19% of the Ukrainian territory and plans to hold its own elections there next month, which Ukraine has said would be illegal.
Zelenskiy's Chances and Political Landscape
Zelenskiy would have a strong chance at reelection, according to polls. Zelenskiy's popularity in Ukraine was at about 90% early in the war, but it has since declined to around 60%, depending on the poll.
Potential Challengers
Political analysts and pollsters said Zelenskiy's approval ratings were damaged by a major corruption scandal in the energy sector last year, but have since recovered and Zelenskiy remains a frontrunner out of all traditional politicians.
Polls show that Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to Britain and formerly the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, would be a leading challenger to Zelenskiy, as would the presidential chief of staff and former head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
Emergence of New Candidates
However, Fedorov, a 35-year-old tech-savvy reformer, has also risen in recent polls since his abrupt dismissal last month by Zelenskiy after just six months as defence minister, which sparked a rare wave of wartime street protests.
Ukraine's NV media cited a prominent local pollster, SOCIS, predicting Fedorov winning around 13% of the vote with Zaluzhnyi on 21% and Zelenskiy at 22%. If Fedorov or Zaluzhnyi were to reach a second round runoff, polls have shown either could beat Zelenskiy.
(Reporting by Olena Harmash; editing by Daniel Flynn and Philippa Fletcher)
