Latvia’s Kulbergs Secures Election Win, Poised to Lead Pro-Ukraine Coalition
Latvia Election Results and Political Implications
By Andrius Sytas
Election Outcome and United List's Victory
RIGA, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs was set to retain power and form a pro-Ukrainian coalition after his centrist United List secured the biggest parliamentary election victory since Latvia regained independence in 1991.
With 97% of ballots counted after Saturday's election in the NATO and European Union country bordering Russia, United List was on 35.3%, enough for 42 seats in the 100-seat parliament.
Kulbergs’ Background and Rise to Power
A businessman and amateur rally driver, Kulbergs, 47, came to power in May after the previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray Ukrainian military drones flew undetected into Latvia.
Economic Challenges and Governance Promises
Latvia's economy has underperformed its Baltic neighbours for more than a decade and Kulbergs has vowed to improve governance, cut red tape and reduce public spending, political scientist Roberts Kits said.
"Kulbergs played on being a get-things-done type of guy and has persuaded the voters that he can do things differently, bring some fresh energy," he said.
"This means the responsibility is huge. People expect him to deliver, but the question remains whether he has the team to do it."
Coalition Prospects and Political Landscape
United List appeared able to secure a parliamentary majority with either the nationalist National Alliance or the liberal Progressives, Kits said.
"(Kulbergs) is smart, let's hope that something will be better, that he will change what can be changed", Aina Sturmane, 78, a pensioner, told Reuters in Riga on Sunday.
No Latvian government has survived a full term, and Kulbergs will face an uphill battle holding together the United List, a loose alliance of small parties and independents, said political scientist Janis Ikstens.
Policy Directions and International Stance
PM Pledges to Maintain Hard Line on Russia
Kulbergs pledged continuing support to Ukraine and to keep a hard line towards Moscow.
"Any economic ties with Russia makes us weak. Yes, it can bring some extra money, but it's a weakness Russia might exploit," he told reporters at his party's headquarters on election night as supporters celebrated the scale of the win.
"It's remarkably good. I was not expecting such a result," Kulbergs said.
Voter Turnout and Party Rankings
Voter turnout was 51.8%, down from 59.4% in 2022, underscoring disappointment with politicians in Latvia, Ikstens said.
United List was followed by the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First, which was on 13.1%. Latvia First had courted the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority in the run-up to the vote.
Third in the ranking was the pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, on 11.7%, followed by the National Alliance, which promotes a hardline approach to the Kremlin, at 8.9%.
Defense and Security Commitments
Throughout his campaign, Kulbergs promised more anti-drone capability for Latvia and to maintain defence spending at 5% of gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in NATO.
Pro-Kremlin Opposition and Minority Issues
His pro-Kremlin rivals said Latvia should stop any aid to Ukraine and instead focus on tackling cost-of-living issues, particularly among the country's Russian-speaking minority.
Although pro-Russian parties increased their representation, Kits said they remained sidelined and were unlikely to influence government policy.
Latvia's ethnic Russian minority is split between those who oppose Moscow's war in Ukraine and others who voice frustration with policies at home aimed at limiting their influence on public life, which many of them see as discriminatory.
Latvia’s Geopolitical Position
Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea and Russia and Belarus to the east, with EU and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south.
(Additional reporting by Janis Laizans and Kuba Stezycki; Editing by Helen Popper and Louise Heavens)
