Has Trump Met His Objectives in the US-Iran Conflict? Full Analysis
Assessment of Trump’s Objectives and Outcomes in the US-Iran Conflict
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters) - Shortly after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, U.S. President Donald Trump laid out a host of objectives, from destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities to ensuring Tehran can never have a nuclear weapon.
More than three months later, with a preliminary peace deal in place, what has Trump achieved?
Missiles and Drones: Has Iran’s Arsenal Been Neutralized?
MISSILES AND DRONES
Iran’s Pre-War Capabilities
Before the war, Iran held the largest ballistic stockpile in the Middle East, with between 2,500 and 6,000 missiles of different types. Some were capable of reaching Israel, with ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), and some carried cluster munition warheads that are harder to defend against.
Iran is also a major manufacturer of long-range drones - in particular, the one-way Shahed drone that has been used by Russia against Ukraine, as well as by Tehran.
Impact of US-Led Strikes
Roughly one month into the war, U.S. sources told Reuters that one-third of that arsenal was destroyed, with another third likely damaged, destroyed or buried.
U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress on May 14 that Iran's ability to build and stockpile missiles and long-range drones had been set back by years. He said more than 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones had been intercepted by the U.S. and its allies during the conflict.
Remaining Threats
It is unclear how many missiles Iran has left, but the country still has the ability to reach U.S. allies - most recently on June 6, when it launched salvos at Kuwait and Bahrain, and June 7, when it fired missiles at Israel. Those countries said the attacks did no significant damage.
Conventional Military: Degradation of Iran’s Forces
CONVENTIONAL MILITARY
US Claims of Military Setbacks for Iran
The U.S. military says it has degraded Iran's conventional military ability to project power in the region or threaten U.S. operations.
Cooper told Congress that the U.S. military had destroyed 161 Iranian naval ships and knocked out 82% of its air defense systems. He said the Iranian air force, which flew up to 100 sorties daily before the war, now does not fly any missions at all.
Iran’s Continued Regional Influence
Despite this, Iran was still able to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz through the duration of the conflict, bottling up merchant ships that transport one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supply through the use of speedboats, mines, drones and missile boats.
Nuclear Program: Has Trump Prevented a Nuclear Iran?
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Stated Goals and Current Status
Trump has repeatedly said that his main goal is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran has consistently said it has no intention of building a bomb and its program is for peaceful purposes.
But the war has not significantly changed Iran's nuclear capability. U.S. intelligence last month estimated that Iran would need less than a year to produce a nuclear weapon - the same timeline it laid out following the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Negotiation Challenges
Iran's nuclear program will be a central issue for negotiators once the framework deal is formally signed on Friday. Trump has said Iran's enriched uranium must be taken out of the country, while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei says it must not be sent abroad, sources say.
Iranian Proxies: Has Tehran’s Influence Waned?
IRANIAN PROXIES
Trump’s Objective to Curb Proxy Groups
Trump said on March 2 at the White House that Tehran cannot be allowed to continue to arm and fund the armed proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen that Iran has relied on for decades to project power and harass enemies.
Effectiveness of Proxy Networks
Iran has shown no willingness to halt its support for those groups since the start of the war, but U.S. military and independent assessments have found that Iran's proxy network is much less effective than it used to be.
Pre-War Trends and Regional Developments
Much of this was underway before the war began. Israel killed many of Hamas' top leaders and thousands of its fighters in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, attack on its territory and killed many of the Hezbollah militia's leadership in Lebanon as well. Iran also lost an important conduit for resupplying Hezbollah with the collapse of former President Bashar al-Assad's rule in Syria in 2024. Sanctions and Iran's economic woes also undercut its ability to fund these groups.
Proxy Group Activity During the Conflict
The groups have not played a major role in the war. Hamas has not attacked Israel from its Gaza enclave, while the Houthis have not significantly disrupted Red Sea shipping from Yemen.
Hezbollah’s Involvement and US Assessment
Hezbollah joined the war on March 2 when it launched missiles and drones into Israel, prompting Israel to respond with airstrikes and a ground invasion that have killed nearly 3,700 people and displaced 1.2 million in Lebanon. Some 28 Israeli soldiers and four civilians have died in the conflict so far.
Cooper told Congress in May that Iran no longer has the ability to reliably supply those groups with advanced weapons, though he did not specify what that meant.
Regime Change: Has the Iranian Government Been Overthrown?
REGIME CHANGE
Trump’s Calls for Overthrow
Trump encouraged Iranian protesters to overthrow their rulers before the war began and said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on February 28 was their "single greatest chance" to seize the government. On March 6, he said the war would only end with "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" from Iran, paired with a new, "acceptable" leader.
Outcome and Leadership Transition
Though the war has failed to dislodge Iran's theocratic government, Trump has claimed that he has accomplished his goal because Khamenei has been replaced by his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump characterized the new leadership as "a new, and more reasonable, regime" on March 29.
Trump in recent weeks has refrained from repeating his calls for the toppling of Iranian leaders.
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Don Durfee and Nia Williams)
