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Finance

Traders turn most bearish against the euro since March

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 1, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: October 1, 2026

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Euro Bears Dominate as Currency Hits 17-Month Low and Volatility Surges

Euro Plunge Sparks Surge in Hedging and Market Volatility

Euro Hits 17-Month Low Amid Market Turmoil

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Demand for options to hedge against another drop in the euro surged on Thursday and traders turned their most bearish on the currency since March, as the currency hit its lowest in 17 months.

European assets came under fire on Thursday, with the euro down nearly 1% to $1.1242, the lowest since May 2025, yields on bonds of more indebted euro zone economies like France and Italy trading at multi-decade highs, and stocks and credit struggling.

Options Market Signals Bearish Sentiment

Three-month euro risk reversals, which reflect the difference between the cost of an option to buy the euro against the cost of one to sell it, fell to -1.132 the lowest since March 13.

Understanding Risk Reversals

The more negative the number, the greater the cost of a sell option relative to a buy option.

Implied Volatility Surges to Multi-Month Highs

Implied volatility on euro options expiring in three months' time hit 6.45%, highest since April 13.

What Rising Implied Volatility Means

Implied vol rises when traders take out protection against the possibility of large price swings in either direction.

Comparative Moves in Other Currencies

Implied vol also increased for other currencies, such as the Swiss franc, the pound and the Australian dollar, but by far less than the euro, which saw the largest one-day rise in three-month implied vol since late January, when US President Donald Trump threatened to annex Greenland.

(Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Alun John)

Key Takeaways

  • The euro fell nearly 1% to $1.1242, its weakest level since May 2025, prompting unprecedented demand for puts over calls. (kitco.com)
  • Three‑month EUR/USD risk reversals dropped to –1.132, the most negative reading since March 13, while three‑month implied volatility climbed to 6.45%, both signals of elevated hedging activity. (kitco.com)
  • The fall accompanies pressure on European assets—bond yields in France and Italy reached multi‑decade highs, and equities and credit markets softened—reflecting broad investor caution. (kitco.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are traders bearish on the euro?
Traders are bearish due to the euro hitting a 17-month low and increased demand for hedging options amid falling European assets.
What is the significance of euro risk reversals?
Euro risk reversals fell to -1.132, indicating higher demand for sell options over buy options, reflecting bearish sentiment.
How has euro implied volatility changed?
Implied volatility for euro options expiring in three months rose to 6.45%, the highest since April, signifying concerns about major price swings.
How did other currencies compare to the euro?
Implied volatility also increased for the Swiss franc, pound, and Australian dollar, but the euro saw the largest one-day implied volatility rise.
What other European assets were affected?
Stocks and credit struggled, and yields on bonds from more indebted eurozone economies like France and Italy hit multi-decade highs.

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