Oil prices barely changed as investors assess US-Iran peace talks and Gulf exports

Oil Prices Hold Steady Amid US-Iran Talks and Recovery in Middle East Exports

By Yuka Obayashi

Market Overview and Key Drivers

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices were nearly flat in early Asia trade on Thursday, following the previous day's gains and steep monthly rises, as investors assessed the outcome of US-Iran peace talks and the outlook for Middle East crude exports.

Recent Price Movements

Brent crude futures rose 12 cents or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel by 0045 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.35 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1%.

Both benchmarks rose about $1 a barrel on Wednesday. Brent recorded a monthly gain of around 14% in September, its biggest since July, while WTI increased by about 5% on the month.

Supply Concerns and Export Recovery

"Although buying continued amid supply concerns as peace talks stalled, selling pressure also prevailed as Middle Eastern oil exports showed signs of recovery," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, citing Saudi Arabia's resumption of exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu as a key factor.

A new catalyst, such as progress in peace negotiations, will be needed for WTI to break below the immediate support level of $88 a barrel, he added.

Diplomatic Developments

Qatar said on Tuesday it hopes that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can lead to a breakthrough.

However, US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited US officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for "concrete" steps by Tehran on its nuclear programme.

Middle East Export Activity

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports" involving ships operating with their location transponders turned off, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

OPEC+ Production Targets

Also, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

US Inventory and Demand Trends

Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 264,000-barrel draw. But fuel inventories fell sharply on strong seasonal and global demand. [EIA/S]

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Christopher Cushing)