Oil Prices Hold Steady as Market Weighs Supply Risks and Middle East Exports
By Scott DiSavino
Market Reactions to Middle East Supply and Export Developments
NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Tuesday after recovering earlier losses, as the market weighed increases in Middle Eastern crude exports and a planned Group of Seven release of emergency diesel and crude stockpiles against supply concerns related to attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
Brent futures were down 29 cents, or 0.3%, at $100.03 a barrel at 12:33 p.m. EDT (1633 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.59.
That put Brent on track for its lowest close since September 22.
Analyst Perspectives on Price Movements
"The price of the global crude benchmark, Brent, is once again toiling around $100/barrel, as its reasons for trading much beyond the psychological 3-digit mark are being eroded ... for now the assumption of more crude getting through has dampened price fervour," said John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM.
Middle East Export Volumes and Infrastructure
Export Data and Trends
Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2 million bpd of refined products — volumes needed to dampen price pressure — have left the Middle East on tankers in the last seven to 10 days, the CEO of commodity trading giant Vitol said on Tuesday.
Saudi Pipeline and Export Hub Updates
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday that oil pumped through the East-West Pipeline, which runs to the kingdom's Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, had reached 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning.
Supply Disruption Risks
Recent Attacks and Security Concerns
Oil price declines, however, have been limited by the possibility of further Middle East supply disruptions.
Saudi Arabia's airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted in two attacks on Monday evening, injuring three people and causing limited damage, the Saudi aviation authority said, as hostilities between the kingdom and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis escalated.
The attacks occurred as Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces pressed a major offensive to retake territory from the Houthis, after weeks of rebel advances, with Riyadh stepping up airstrikes in support of the campaign.
Separately, the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis.
Global Oil Stocks and Policy Responses
International Energy Agency and G7 Actions
OIL STOCKS AROUND THE WORLD
The International Energy Agency will meet next week to work out the details of a diesel stock release as market confusion grows over how many barrels Europe and the US plan to make available to address shortages and record-high prices, sources said.
The surge in diesel prices has turned the fuel, which underpins trucking, agriculture and industry, into a global political and economic concern. The wars in Iran and Ukraine have curtailed exports and damaged refineries, helping drive the rise in prices.
Under pressure from US President Donald Trump, the Group of Seven major economies agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions.
The G7, however, did not provide a breakdown of the volumes of crude, diesel and other products to be released, or say which countries would participate.
Production and Demand Projections
With the war in Iran disrupting the flow of Middle East oil supplies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected on Tuesday that world petroleum production would drop from a record 106.3 million bpd in 2025 to 101.1 million bpd in 2026, and world oil demand will drop from a record 104.4 million bpd in 2025 to 102.4 million bpd in 2026.
In 2027, however, EIA projected world oil supply and demand would rise back to record highs of 109.6 million bpd of production and 104.6 million bpd of consumption.
US Oil Storage and Inventory Trends
Weekly Storage Reports
In the US, meanwhile, the oil market was watching for weekly storage reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group on Tuesday and the EIA on Wednesday.
Analyst Estimates and Historical Comparisons
Analysts estimated energy firms added 1.8 million barrels of crude to US storage during the week ended October 2.
If correct, it would mark the first time since August that crude stocks increased for three weeks in a row and compare with an increase of 3.7 million barrels in the same week last year and an average increase of 1.7 million barrels over the past five years (2021 to 2025). [EIA/S] [API/S]
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York and Alex Lawler in London; Additional reporting by Sumit Saha in Bengaluru and Emily Chow in Singapore; Editing by Joe Bavier, Paul Simao and Susan Fenton)