Bond Investors in Revolt as Yields Surge Amid Middle East Tensions
Market Reactions to Rising Yields and Geopolitical Tensions
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter
Government Borrowing Costs Reach Decade Highs
Government borrowing costs are rising to levels not seen in decades as the conflict in the Middle East worsens and investors fear the effect on inflation.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond hit its highest level since June 2007 on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of 5.321%, as soft economic data prompted more traders to bet the Federal Reserve will refrain from hiking interest rates to curb inflation.
Energy Prices and Central Bank Uncertainty
The prospect of higher energy prices - Brent crude is up for a third day at around $91 per barrel - alongside vague signals from the U.S. central bank over the path ahead spilled over into global fixed income on Tuesday.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.4 basis point at 4.7259%, while corresponding Japanese government bond yields climbed 2.5 basis points to 2.945%, a three-decade high.
Geopolitical Developments and Diplomatic Strains
The rise in oil prices comes as a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled. Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement that expired on Monday.
Underscoring the diplomatic strains, U.S. President Donald Trump also threatened to bomb Oman if they "get in the way" of negotiations around the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf state is the latest American ally to attract his ire this week, following South Korea and Canada.
Impact on Global Equities and Futures
The selloff in global fixed income weighed on equities in the Asian trading session, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan off 0.7%, dragged down by a 1.5% fall in South Korea's KOSPI as the Seoul market returned after a holiday.
The Nikkei 225 slumped 2.1%, while S&P 500 e-mini futures were down 0.3%.
In early European trades, pan-region futures were down 0.4%, German DAX futures were 0.5% lower, and FTSE futures were flat.
Key Economic Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
Economic Data Releases
Economic data:
• UK: Unemployment rate and average weekly earnings for June, HMRC payrolls change for July, labour productivity for Q1
• Euro Zone: ZEW Survey Expectations for August
• Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment for August
Debt Auctions
• Debt auction: UK 10-year government debt
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Sonali Paul)
