Ukraine Vows Strikes on Russian Oil Refineries in Answer to Moscow’s New Air Doctrine
Ukraine’s Response to Russia’s Escalating Airstrikes and the Broader Conflict
By Daniel Flynn and Olena Harmash
Ukraine’s Strategy and Intelligence on Russian Doctrine
KYIV, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Ukraine will double down on attacking Russian oil refineries in response to a new policy of airstrikes by Moscow designed to force people to abandon Kyiv and other cities, but will not target civilians, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
Ukrainian intelligence has obtained documents showing that Russian leader Vladimir Putin had issued a "new doctrine" of military attacks on a much broader range of civilian targets ahead of this winter, Zelenskiy said.
"We saw documents and we know that they allow them attack infrastructure ... logistics ... roads, schools, hospitals, to pressure people to leave the capital, leave different cities," Zelenskiy said. "This is the goal of the operation."
Driving the shift in policy, Zelenskiy said, was Putin's desire to appear strong at a time when his military was losing ground in a key frontline region and sustaining higher levels of casualties.
The Kremlin was not available to comment on Saturday. But in a statement urging foreign nationals to leave Kyiv, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow would continue to systematically hit targets in what it said were retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian attacks on Russia in recent months.
Both sides deny deliberately targeting civilians.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive and International Reactions
Progress in Donbas and US Involvement
COUNTEROFFENSIVE IN DONBAS
Zelenskiy said an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive, code-named "Vivaldi", had recaptured around 140 sq km (54 sq miles) of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which Russia has said it must control in its entirety as a condition for any peace deal.
In recent weeks, US President Donald Trump's administration has sought to revive talks to end the four-year-old conflict – Europe's bloodiest since World War Two.
The US leader last month urged Ukraine to refrain from hitting Russian oil installations, saying that was sending global diesel prices surging.
But Zelenskiy, speaking as air raid sirens blared outside the gilded halls of the presidential offices, said he had received no indications from Russia that Putin was interested in peace talks, or discussing a ceasefire on energy infrastructure.
Russian Attacks on Kyiv’s Infrastructure
Over the past week, the Ukrainian capital has come under persistent attack by Russian drones and missiles targeting energy and telecoms assets, road and rail infrastructure. For the first time, Russia has targeted the bridges across the Dnipro river connecting east and west Kyiv.
Zelenskiy said Ukraine would respond to the change in tactics by Moscow, but would not respond in kind by targeting civilian infrastructure indiscriminately.
"We have to respond in any way (we can). With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners: what gives money to them for this war," Zelenskiy said in English. "But we will not respond, of course, just like them, on any civilian objects."
Support from Europe and the United States
Diplomatic Efforts and Conditions for Peace
SUPPORT FROM EUROPE
After the Trump administration invited Putin to attend a G20 summit in Miami in December and discussed business deals with Russian envoys, Zelenskiy urged Washington not to normalise relations with Russia before ensuring a return to peace.
Zelenskiy said he would be happy to meet Putin for peace talks at the G20, but he warned the US not to believe in "illusions" that Russia would end hostilities if it gained control of Donbas.
"It's not fair just to normalise," said Zelenskiy, dressed in his trademark black T-shirt and military-style jacket. Any resumption of economic and diplomatic ties with the West had to be in return for peace, he said: "Because peace is more important than any kind of economy."
Upcoming Negotiations and Security Concerns
While the US has proposed a resumption of trilateral talks in the coming weeks in the UAE, Zelenskiy noted that an exact date and location for the technical-level conversations had not been set.
Ukrainian officials warn that Russia has stockpiled hundreds of ballistic missiles ahead of an expected winter onslaught against electricity and water infrastructure. Last winter, the worst of the war, Russian strikes left swathes of the country without electricity and heating for days at a time.
Since the summer, Moscow has also begun launching dozens of fast and relatively cheap jet-powered Shahed drones a day at Ukraine, whose air defences have struggled as its previous generation of interceptor drones were too slow to catch them.
Ukraine’s Air Defence and Drone Development
Zelenskiy said Ukraine had been forced to rely heavily on its fighter aircraft – F-16s and MiGs – to down around 60% of the Russian jet-powered drones, but supplies of 20 mm ammunition for the planes were running low.
Kyiv was urgently working on other solutions – including boosting its jamming capabilities, he said. In the second half of October, it would receive the first shipment of small, cheap air defence missiles capable of hitting the new Shaheds.
Last week, Zelenskiy said Ukraine was developing five models of new interceptor drones capable of downing the jet Shaheds. Fresh from a meeting with his defence chiefs, he said tests on two of those models showed a modest success rate of around 30%.
"We'll have to scale it," he said. "I hope that with all these things, with all these elements, we'll find a way."
Ballistic Missile Threat and Ukraine’s Response
Deployment of Domestic Ballistic Missiles
BALLISTIC THREAT
Ukraine announced the first combat use this week of its own domestically made ballistic missile – the FP-7, which has a range of around 250 km (155 miles).
Zelenskiy said he had called the manufacturer Fire Point to pressure executives to finish quickly a longer-range model, the FP-9, which the company has said could hit Moscow.
"I said to them, where is my FP-9?" said Zelenskiy, with a grin. "We need the FP-9. And the FP-9 will be (ready) this autumn, I'm sure."
Russian Hybrid Attacks in Europe
Zelenskiy said a recent spate of Russian drone incursions and hybrid attacks in Europe were an effort to intimidate Europe
