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French preliminary inflation up at 3.4% in September - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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French preliminary inflation up at 3.4% in September

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 30, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: September 30, 2026

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French Preliminary Inflation Tops Forecasts at 3.4% for September 2025

French Inflation Data and Market Expectations

Sept 30 (Reuters) - French consumer prices rose more than expected in September, preliminary data from the INSEE statistics agency showed on Wednesday.

Key Inflation Figures

France's harmonized inflation rate, adjusted for comparison with other euro zone countries, was 3.4% year-on-year in September.

Drivers of Inflation

• Inflation rose from 2.6% in August driven by energy prices, with petroleum products and gas prices rising, INSEE said

Market Expectations vs. Actual Data

• A Reuters poll of 19 analysts had on average expected a rate of 3.1%, with estimates ranging from 2.8% to 3.3%

Domestic Price Index and Sector Breakdown

Domestic Consumer Price Index

• France's domestic consumer price index rose 3.0% year-on-year in September, above the 2.8% forecast and up from 2.4% in August

Sector-Specific Trends

Services Inflation

• Services inflation edged higher as the seasonal fall in accommodation and transport prices was less marked than in September 2025

Food and Manufactured Goods

• Food prices also accelerated driven by fresh produce, while the decline in manufactured goods prices eased

Monthly Changes

• On a monthly basis, the harmonised index fell 0.4% in September, against a Reuters forecast of -0.5% and a 0.7% gain in August

(Reporting by Dimitri Rhodes in Gdansk, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak)

Key Takeaways

  • Harmonised inflation jumped to 3.4% year‑on‑year in September, exceeding expectations (~3.1%) and rising from 2.6% in August, largely due to energy price increases (petroleum, gas).
  • France’s domestic CPI climbed to 3.0% year‑on‑year in September, above the 2.8% forecast and well above August’s 2.4%, with fresh food and services inflation contributing.
  • On a monthly basis, harmonised inflation fell 0.4% in September (versus forecast –0.5%), reflecting a milder seasonal decline following August’s +0.7% gain; this signals sticky inflation pressures at the turn of the season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was France's inflation rate in September 2025?
France's harmonized inflation rate was 3.4% year-on-year in September 2025.
What factors drove the rise in inflation?
The rise was driven largely by higher energy prices, including increases in petroleum products and gas.
How did France's domestic consumer price index change?
The domestic consumer price index rose by 3.0% year-on-year in September, above the 2.8% forecast.
What happened to monthly inflation in France in September?
On a monthly basis, France's harmonised index fell 0.4% in September.

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