European Officials Warn of Intensifying Russian Hybrid Attacks, Downplay NATO Threat
Escalating Russian Hybrid Tactics and European Responses
By John Irish and Tom Balmforth
Russian Hybrid Attacks Intensify Across Europe
UNITED NATIONS, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Russia is intensifying sabotage, cyberattacks and other hybrid attacks across Europe to undermine support for Ukraine, European ministers said, while dismissing concerns that Moscow is capable of launching a direct assault on NATO.
Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week, officials from countries on NATO's eastern flank said Moscow was increasingly using drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage and other covert operations to sow fear, test Western resolve and weaken backing for Kyiv.
"Europe faces a fast proliferation of sabotage attacks and airspace violations," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters. "Moscow is trying to scare Europe into winding down its support for Ukraine."
European governments increasingly see Russia's most immediate threat not as a conventional military attack, but as a campaign of covert and deniable actions aimed at unsettling Ukraine's allies and eroding Western unity as the war drags on.
Calls for Increased Pressure on Moscow
Kallas said Russia appeared willing to take greater risks and argued the answer was to increase pressure on Moscow through tougher sanctions, including measures targeting its "shadow fleet" and military-industrial complex.
"Russia's economy is one of its weakest parts, and we need to increase the pressure on it so that they would stop this war," she said.
Direct Incidents and National Responses
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said such activity was no longer merely a threat.
"They're not just threats; they're actual attacks," Sikorski told Reuters, citing arson, explosions, drone incursions and what Warsaw says was a deliberate cruise missile violation of its territory.
The Polish Army Operational Command said on Wednesday a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter made a brief incursion into its airspace from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
"Our F-16s are scrambled up almost every day now because you just never know when these drones or missiles that approach might not actually be possible," he said.
Romanian Foreign Minister Oana Toiu told Reuters Bucharest had seen more than 100 incursions by drones or drone fragments onto its territory as Russia intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure near the Danube and Black Sea.
"We do not have data to indicate we're targeted directly, but that doesn't change the responsibility of Russia for the risk it creates," she said.
Romania has responded by closing Russia's consulate in Constanta and coordinating diplomatic measures with European allies, she added.
The Kremlin consistently denies conducting sabotage operations in NATO countries or plotting any confrontation.
No Imminent NATO Attack, Say Officials
Despite the incidents, ministers drew a distinction between Russia's covert campaign and the prospect of a direct attack on NATO territory.
Assessment of Russian Military Capabilities
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Reuters alarmist predictions of an imminent Russian assault on the alliance were misplaced.
"We don’t see that Russia is able and even preparing for some kind of active military aggression against NATO or the European countries," he said, arguing Moscow lacked the capabilities for such an operation while its forces remained heavily engaged in Ukraine.
He said Moscow's campaign was designed primarily to create fear and divisions within Western societies.
"This is mainly meant for creating fear, fear of escalation, to divide us, to play with our unity," Tsahkna said. "The main message is: Don't let Putin play with the fear of escalation," he said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Potential for Broader Hybrid Activity
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said allied intelligence pointed to a risk that Russia could seek to broaden pressure on NATO countries through attacks on critical infrastructure and other forms of hybrid activity.
"There are some considerations on the Russian side to escalate horizontally, so to say, or geographically," Budrys told Reuters.
Unity and Deterrence as Key Strategies
The ministers said the best way to counter such tactics was through unity, deterrence and continued support for Ukraine, particularly ahead of winter, when Russia is expected to intensify attacks on energy infrastructure.
Budrys warned that "the cold will be weaponized by Russia" and urged European countries to provide more assistance, arguing support remained patchy across the bloc.
Results of Firm Responses
Several ministers argued that firm responses had already shown results. Tsahkna pointed to the sharp reduction in serious Russian airspace violations on NATO's eastern flank following a strong allied reaction to previous incidents.
"Putin is carefully watching," he said. "We have lots of leverage, but we just need to have self-confidence and be clear about our language."
(Reporting by John Irish and Tom Balmforth; Editing by Howard Goller)
