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France's PM Bayrou weakened by Socialists' threat to back no-confidence vote
Published by Global Banking and Finance Review
Posted on January 15, 2025
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By Dominique Vidalon
PARIS (Reuters) - The prospects of French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's minority government surviving in the long term appeared slimmer after the Socialist Party raised the threat of backing a no-confidence vote on Thursday.
Although Bayrou looks likely to survive the no-confidence motion put forward by 58 far-left France Unbowed (LFI), Green and communist MPs, a loss of Socialist support would be a big blow, especially after he offered on Tuesday to renegotiate a disputed 2023 pension reform law to win their backing.
If he were to lose the Socialists' support, Bayrou would find himself in a similar position to his predecessor Michel Barnier: reliant on the grace of the far-right National Rally (RN), which could pull its support at will.
Barnier's three months in office were cut short after the RN, led by Marine Le Pen, chafed at his belt-tightening 2025 budget bill.
"Le Pen and her lieutenants have blown hot and cold on their intentions in tomorrow's vote. The likelihood is they will stand aside and Bayrou will survive - for now," Eurasia Group said in a note. "Without Socialist support, Bayrou now finds himself just as vulnerable to the whims and threats of the far right."
The no-confidence vote will be debated on Thursday at 1400 GMT, the president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, told RTL radio on Wednesday.
The Socialists, who voted to oust Barnier in December, have made concessions on the 2023 pension law a condition for supporting Bayrou. Courting the Socialists was seen as a way for Bayrou to free himself from dependence on the RN.
In parliament on Tuesday, Bayrou opened the door to renegotiating the pension plan, proposing to entrust trade unions and employers' groups with a three-month mission to find a new deal that is financially balanced. If it can't be balanced, the current deal would remain in place, Bayrou said.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure said it wasn't enough.
"We will back a no-confidence vote, unless we get a clear response to our demands," Faure told TF1 TV late on Tuesday.
He said the Socialists wanted a guarantee that, if the re-negotiations failed, the pension law would be re-examined by parliament.
Budget Minister Amelie de Montchalin appeared to pour cold water on that request in comments to TF1 TV on Wednesday, saying "the unions and the employers can succeed in their talks, this is the right method."
The pension reform, which became a law in the spring of 2023, gradually raises the minimum age for drawing a full pension to 64 from 62.
(Reporting by Dominique Vidalon; Editing by Gabriel Stargardter and Frances Kerry)