Russian Diesel Supply Depleted by Renewed Refinery Attacks and US Export Deal
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes and US-Russia Diesel Export Agreement
By Robert Harvey
Renewed Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Ukraine's renewed attacks on Russian oil refineries add to Moscow's difficulty in addressing domestic fuel shortages while it ships diesel to international markets under an export deal with US President Donald Trump.
Ryazan Oil Refinery Incident
The Ryazan oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, appeared to have come under attack as part of a large drone strike overnight on industrial sites in the city, southeast of Moscow, according to a Reuters video analysis.
Yaroslavl Plant and Breakdown of Pause in Strikes
If confirmed, it would be the second refinery to be hit this week following an attack on the Yaroslavl plant, northeast of Moscow, overnight on Monday, marking the breakdown of a pause in strikes.
Consequences of Strikes on Russian Fuel Supply
Ukraine's strikes on oil refineries this year forced large amounts of processing capacity in western Russia offline, causing fuel shortages that meant Moscow had to enforce fuel export bans from April onwards.
US-Russia Diesel Export Deal
Lifting of Diesel Export Ban
A ban on diesel exports has been lifted in part and the US struck the deal in October with the Kremlin to resume diesel exports to international markets when Trump was seeking to calm diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections on November 3, which Trump's Republican Party lost.
Restoration Efforts in Ryazan
The city of Ryazan had restored power supply earlier on Thursday as fires at the unnamed industrial sites were either contained or put out, the local governor said on social media.
Russian Diesel Cargoes and Transatlantic Voyages
Current Status of Diesel Shipments
US-RUSSIA DIESEL CARGOES ARE IN FOCUS
At least six Russian diesel cargoes have broadcast that they plan transatlantic voyages, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG show, while two cargoes appeared to have changed course after being previously bound for the US Atlantic coast.
No Russian diesel cargo has arrived in the US since the deal, the data show.
Uncertainty Over US-Bound Shipments
The first observed US-bound Russian shipment is expected to arrive in New York this weekend, but regulatory, legislative and sanctions concerns mean that its discharge is not guaranteed, Kpler analyst Matt Smith said.
Kremlin Statements on Diesel Exports
"These are commercial loadings, so naturally the details cannot be made public. All the diesel will find its buyers," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a daily conference call.
Signals and Tanker Routes
Tankers often broadcast messages known as signals, such as "ATLANTIC COAST FOR ORDERS," indicating they are heading for the US Atlantic coast but have no confirmed discharge port, so the crew is awaiting instructions.
Kremlin's Response to Tanker Route Changes
Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev said Russian diesel cargoes destined for the US are continuing on course, in a post on X.
There is no connection between diesel tankers changing course and the result of the US midterm elections, Peskov added.
(Reporting by Robert Harvey in London and Jekaterīna Golubkova in Tokyo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Louise Heavens and Barbara Lewis)