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Italy's economy flat in third quarter, misses forecast - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Italy's economy flat in third quarter, misses forecast

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 30, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: October 30, 2026

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Italy's Economy Stagnant in Third Quarter of 2026, Below Forecasts

Italy's Economic Performance and Growth Forecasts

Third Quarter 2026 GDP Results

Oct 30 (Reuters) - The Italian economy was flat in the third quarter of this year compared with the previous three months, preliminary data showed on Friday, a slightly weaker reading than expected.

Year-on-Year GDP Growth

On a year-on-year basis, gross domestic product in the euro zone's third largest economy was up 0.8% between July and September, national statistics bureau ISTAT said.

Economists' Forecasts vs. Actual Results

A Reuters survey of 28 economists had forecast a 0.1% rise quarter-on-quarter and a 0.9% increase year-on-year.

Growth Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Acquired Growth and Full-Year Projections

So-called "acquired growth" stood at 0.8% at the end of the third quarter, meaning that even if GDP is flat in the remaining quarter of 2026, full-year growth will be up 0.8% from 2025.

Government Growth Targets

Giorgia Meloni's government this month hiked its economic growth outlook to 1% for this year and 0.8% next from previous targets of 0.6% respectively.

In 2025 Italy grew by 0.6%.

The government forecast a 0.9% growth rate for 2028.

Quarterly GDP Data Breakdown

ISTAT's Quarterly GDP Details

ISTAT gave the following details on Italian GDP for the third quarter of 2026 and the previous two quarters:

Quarterly and Yearly Percentage Changes

Q3 2026 Q2 2026 Q1 2026

Q/Q (pct change) 0.0p 0.2 0.3

Y/Y (pct change) 0.8p 1.0 0.8

p = preliminary

Sources and Reporting

(Reporting by Reuters staff)

Key Takeaways

  • Q3 2026 GDP growth was flat quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.1% Reuters consensus forecast (ca.marketscreener.com).
  • Year‑on‑year GDP in Q3 rose by 0.8%, versus the 0.9% expected by economists (ca.marketscreener.com).
  • ‘Acquired growth’ for 2026 remains at 0.8%, meaning full‑year GDP would expand by that amount even if Q4 is flat (ansa.it).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Italy's economy perform in the third quarter of 2026?
Italy's economy was flat in Q3 2026 compared to the previous quarter according to ISTAT's preliminary data.
What was the year-on-year GDP growth for Italy in Q3 2026?
GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in Q3 2026.
What is Italy's economic growth outlook for the full year?
Italy's acquired growth for 2026 stands at 0.8%, with the government projecting 1% growth for the year.
Who provided the data on Italy's economic performance?
The national statistics bureau ISTAT reported the economic data, with forecasts from a Reuters survey of economists.

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