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Bank of England surveys show firms see pay rising around 3.5% in 2027 - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Bank of England surveys show firms see pay rising around 3.5% in 2027

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 30, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: October 30, 2026

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Bank of England Surveys Show UK Firms Expect 3.5% Pay Rise by 2027

Key Findings from Bank of England Surveys

Overview of Survey Results

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Bank of England surveys released on Friday showed businesses expect to raise pay by around 3.5% next year, similar to current rates but a level likely to concern those policymakers most anxious about broader inflation pressures.

Decision Maker Panel Survey Insights

The Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey of businesses in the three months to October said firms expected wage growth of 3.4% over the next year, unchanged from the previous reading taken in the three months to September.

Agents' Summary of Business Conditions

The BoE's Agents' Summary of Business Conditions – a separate survey – reported that firms expected average pay settlements for 2027 to be around 3.6%, similar to this year but slightly higher than previously forecast.

Implications for Policymakers

(Reporting by David Milliken; editing by William James)

Key Takeaways

  • Decision Maker Panel finds firms expect year‑ahead wage growth steady at ~3.4% (three months to October vs September) (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • Agents’ Summary reports average pay settlements for 2027 expected at ~3.6%, slightly above 2026 levels and of concern to policymakers targeting lower inflation (bankofengland.co.uk)
  • Policymaker Megan Greene warns that pay rises near 3.5% are too high to return inflation to the 2% target, underscoring monetary policy pressures (live.euronext.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What wage growth do UK businesses expect in 2027?
Bank of England surveys show businesses expect pay to rise by around 3.5% in 2027.
What is the BoE Decision Maker Panel?
It's a Bank of England survey tracking UK businesses' expectations for wages and inflation.
Why are these pay rise expectations significant?
They may concern policymakers who are worried about ongoing inflation pressures.

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