Glencore raises 2026 marketing profit outlook, resets long-term guidance framework

Glencore Lifts 2026 Marketing Profit Forecast, Updates Long-Term Guidance

Glencore's Upgraded Profit Outlook and Strategic Updates

2026 Marketing Profit Forecast Surpasses Expectations

Oct 2 (Reuters) - Glencore on Friday said it now expects 2026 marketing adjusted operating profit to exceed $5 billion, well above its long-term guidance, after a near-record first-half performance driven by volatile oil, gas and freight markets.

The Swiss miner and trader's earnings from commodity trading have leaped as conflict in the Middle East creates constraints across global energy markets.

Glencore's Unique Business Model and Recent Performance

Unlike most major miners, Glencore combines mining operations with a large commodity trading business. The marketing division generated a record adjusted operating profit of $6.4 billion in 2022, when the Ukraine war triggered similar market dislocations.

The upgraded outlook for the marketing unit sits well above the company's earlier long-term guidance range of $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion.

Introduction of New Long-Term Guidance Framework

Glencore also introduced a new long-term guidance framework that accounts for higher Readily Marketable Inventories (RMI) and elevated interest rates.

Details of the New Methodology

The new methodology, to apply from 2027, guides for a long-term marketing adjusted operating profit of about $3.5 billion annually, within a $2.8 billion to $4.2 billion range, assuming a June 30 RMI of $32.2 billion and 5% funding costs. 

Factors Influencing the New Guidance

Glencore said RMI has risen materially in recent years, reflecting higher commodity prices, inflation and greater business scale, while interest rates have moved higher.

Additional Company Updates

The company also confirmed that trading in CHESS Depositary Interests under its Australian Securities Exchange secondary listing is expected to begin on October 14.

(Reporting by Raechel Thankam Job in Bengaluru; Editing by Jonathan Ananda)