Three tensions cloud the outlook, but the global economy holds firm
According to Allianz Trade’s latest economic research report, the global economy enters the final quarter of 2026 under the shadow of three tensions that escalated over the summer: a fresh energy shock out of the Middle East, a bond sell-off that has spread from the US to Japan to Europe, and renewed doubts about the AI boom. Yet none of this has broken the real economy: Q2 growth surprised to the upside, carried by net exports, Germany's fiscal stimulus, and robust AI-related investment in the US and Asia.
Global GDP growth is set to slow from +3.0% in 2025 to +2.6% in 2026. The US economy continues to see multi-speed growth, with ICT capex growth expected to peak at around +18% in 2026, while residential investment contracts and consumer spending eases. US GDP is forecast to grow by +2.1% in 2026. Meanwhile, China‘s economy lost momentum in Q2 as the oil shock from the Middle East conflict and persistently soft household spending weighed on activity. Yet the full-year 2026 forecast holds at +4.7%, anchored by robust export performance, while structurally elevated savings rates and depressed consumer confidence remain the primary drag on the domestic economy.
Global trade of goods driven mainly by AI in a divergent global economy
Global trade of goods is forecast to grow by +4% in 2026, driven primarily by AI-related demand that continues to mask a widening divergence across the global economy. While geopolitical tensions, including disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing trade war, are weighing on trade flows, strong AI investment, defense spending and residual momentum are helping sustain growth. However, this support is expected to fade, with global goods trade growth slowing to +2.9% in both 2027 and 2028 as the AI cycle matures, supply chain disruptions persist and tariff-related frictions continue, although new free-trade agreements are expected to provide a modest offset.
AI boom keeps APAC at the forefront of global growth
APAC is set to remain the world's growth engine, with GDP growth forecast at +4.4% in 2026 and around a quarter of that growth driven by the AI investment cycle. Economies deeply embedded into AI supply chains, particularly Taiwan and South Korea, continue to benefit from strong demand for semiconductors and other AI-related inputs, while Vietnam and Malaysia also gain from ongoing supply-chain diversification.
However, growth across the region is increasingly uneven: while Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore derive roughly 60% of their growth from AI-related activity, Indonesia and the Philippines face headwinds from tighter financial conditions, exposure to the Hormuz and food inflation. Meanwhile, US tariffs and weak Chinese domestic demand are contributing to a "China Shock 2.0", as Chinese exports are increasingly redirected to the global south and Europe, reshaping global trade flows and intensifying competitive pressures.
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Jason Wong
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jason.wong@allianz-trade.com
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About Allianz Trade
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network is based on instant access to data of 289 million corporates. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in over 40 countries with 5,900 employees. In 2025, our consolidated turnover was EUR4 billion and insured global business transactions represented EUR1,400 billion in exposure. For more information, please visit allianz-trade.com
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The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (I) changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation, particularly in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (II) performance of financial markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events), (III) frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (IV) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (V) persistency levels, (VI) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (VII) interest rate levels, (VIII) currency exchange rates including the euro/US-dollar exchange rate, (IX) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (X) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (XI) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.
