Dollar Holds Steady as Markets Await Key US Inflation Data and Rate Clues
By Tom Westbrook
Market Movements and Currency Reactions
SYDNEY, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The dollar found support after a bumpy few days and held firm on Tuesday ahead of US inflation data that could lift it further if rate hike bets strengthen.
A tumble in oil prices and gains for stocks had knocked the dollar lower as investors turned to riskier assets.
Performance of Major Currencies
The trade- and sentiment-sensitive Australian dollar rose by nearly 1% through Monday to sit at $0.6918 on Tuesday and the New Zealand dollar gained even more, reaching $0.5634, with both spending the Asia session fairly steady.
New Zealand Dollar and Election Impact
The kiwi caught an extra boost as results from last weekend's election suggested the incumbent three-party coalition would stay in power, reducing uncertainty and the likelihood of any changes to the central bank's mandate.
Euro and US Jobs Data
The euro jumped 0.7% on Monday to $1.1220, reversing a Friday fall when strong US jobs data lifted the dollar and interest rate expectations. That has put the euro/dollar pair roughly into the middle of a range it has held for a month.
US Dollar Outlook and Rate Expectations
Traders favour further dollar strength and the dollar index has gained this year as early expectations for US interest rate cuts quickly turned to bets on hikes after the US-Israeli war on Iran drove up energy prices and fuelled inflation.
A blowout October jobs report on Friday, with hiring more than twice the forecasts, has markets pricing an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month.
US CPI Awaited
Inflation Forecasts and Market Reactions
Headline inflation is seen picking up to 3.9% and core to 2.8%, year-on-year, in October, according to economists polled by Reuters, so anything hotter than that will add to rate hike expectations and probably lift the dollar, analysts said.
Strategist Insights
"You can only put a little bit more (in the price) in December, but the price for meetings into the future could go higher," said Imre Speizer, strategist at Westpac in Auckland.
Markets have priced two US hikes by the middle of next year, though the outlook has dimmed somewhat amid the recent turbulence in AI stocks on fears a Democratic sweep of Congress could lead to tighter regulation and slow the AI boom.
"This could be a factor that slows US growth in 2027 and helps put a top in for the dollar," said Macquarie strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry in a note to clients.
Other Major Currencies
Sterling
Sterling, which has drawn support since the Bank of England hiked interest rates for the first time in three years last week, sat in the middle of a range it has traded in for almost a year and a half at $1.3441. [GBP/]
Japanese Yen
Japan's yen hovered at 158 per dollar, having been the best-performing G10 currency against the greenback over the past six months on the back of heavy official intervention.
Japan's Currency Intervention
Figures released on Monday showed Japan sold $97 billion in reserves defending the yen through late July and August as it traversed four-decade lows on the dollar. The threat of further dollar sales is keeping the currency steady, even as expectations for a December rate hike in Japan have lately faded.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook;Editing by Shri Navaratnam and DJ Yap)
