Asian Stocks Dip Before US Midterms; Oil Finds Stability in Volatile Trade
Market Movements and Investor Sentiment Ahead of US Midterms
By Gregor Stuart Hunter
Asian Market Performance
SINGAPORE, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Stocks edged lower at the start of Asian trade on Tuesday and oil prices stabilised after the previous session's tumble, with investors on edge ahead of the start of voting for the US midterm elections.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.9%, led by a decline of as much as 3.8% in Korean shares. S&P 500 e-mini futures edged up 0.1%, while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
Analyst Insights and US Treasury Developments
"Tuesday will be nothing more than the day ahead of a much bigger day," ING analysts wrote in a note. By tomorrow, the market will have guidance on the midterm implications and the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, they wrote. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 2.1 basis points at 4.913%.
Wall Street and Corporate Earnings
Overnight, stocks on Wall Street edged lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.5% as tech sector earnings weighed on investor confidence, even as data showed US manufacturing activity picked up in October amid strong domestic demand.
Apple's Performance and Outlook
Apple shares extended losses, falling 2.8% in after-hours trading after the iPhone maker on Monday forecast lower gross margins for the crucial holiday quarter, citing rising memory-chip costs, and projected services revenue growth that fell well short of Wall Street expectations.
US Midterm Elections and Political Forecasts
Investors are also preparing to vote in the US midterm elections, where President Donald Trump's Republican Party is facing a challenge to keep its hold on Congress.
Opinion Polls and Prediction Markets
Opinion polls favor the Democrats to win the House, though the Senate remains too close to call. Prediction market sites Polymarket and Kalshi currently assign around a 75% probability that the Democrats will control the Senate.
Analyst Commentary on Political Risks
"Prediction markets imply the greatest likelihood of a Democratic 'sweep', but polling margins remain broadly comparable to Trump 1.0 midterms in 2018 when Democrats won the House decisively, but Republicans held onto the Senate," MUFG analysts wrote in a note.
"Brazil’s election surprise is a reminder that prediction markets can misprice political tail risks, raising questions around the roughly 70% odds now assigned to a blue 'sweep' in the midterms."
Oil Market Developments
Crude Price Fluctuations and Geopolitical Factors
CRUDE STABILISES
Oil prices steadied after a fall, with Brent crude fluctuating between gains and losses and last 0.1% lower at $104.72 as trading resumed in Asia and investors weighed the state of peace talks between the US and Iran. The Wall Street Journal on Monday reported the US military struck Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, citing US officials.
Crude prices fell more than 7% on Monday as talks between Iranian and Qatari officials lifted hopes for an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran and stabilisation of Middle East crude supply. "Oil prices fell sharply as renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy saw some geopolitical risk premium unwind," Westpac analysts wrote.
Other Regional Markets and Currencies
Asia-Pacific Equities and Central Bank Decisions
In Asia-Pacific, Australian shares were up 0.1% and the Aussie dollar held steady at $0.70 ahead of the latest decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia, at which the central bank is widely expected to hike its cash rate target by 25 basis points to a near two-decade high of 4.85% from the current 4.6%.
Taiwanese shares fell 1.3%, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up 0.3%.
Currency Markets and Central Bank Actions
Against the Chinese yuan, the US dollar was 0.3% stronger at 6.6645 yuan in offshore trade after the People’s Bank of China said on Tuesday it would raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions to 6% from 4% from November 15.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, edged up 0.1% to 101.81, recovering from a one-month low after slipping 0.2% on Monday.
Cryptocurrency Market Update
Cryptocurrencies remained choppy after last week's Binance hack, as customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion of funds. Bitcoin crawled 0.5% higher to $77,112.18 and ether nudged 0.1% lower to $2,253.59.
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
