Analysis-Youth-led unrest exposes cracks in Morocco's economic model

By Ahmed Eljechtimi and Alexander Dziadosz

RABAT/CAIRO (Reuters) -Youth-led unrest that spread across Morocco last week revealed deep-seated anger over poverty and public services behind a storyline of ambitious infrastructure projects and modern stadiums opening ahead of the 2030 World Cup.  

The protests in major cities – inspired by similar revolts in Nepal, Madagascar and Peru – devolved into riots in rural towns and remote cities. Three people were shot dead as they tried to storm a security headquarters, and over 400 were arrested, before the violence eased.

The unrest was the most widespread since the 2011 Arab Spring protests, which prompted King Mohammed VI to devolve some powers to parliament. It was also the most violent since the 2016 protests in the Rif region.

The protests expose a challenge for authorities as they try to maintain order and the pace of economic development while burnishing Morocco's international image ahead of the World Cup, to be co-hosted with Spain and Portugal.

DEMANDS FOR BETTER HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION

Morocco has set itself apart from other non-oil Arab economies by pouring billions into roads, rail, ports, renewable energy and manufacturing.

Poverty has been cut almost in half, according to the country's statistics agency, and living standards in parts of the northwest coast rival Europe.

Central bank data projects GDP growth of 4.6% this year from 3.8% last year. Last month, S&P credit rating agency gave Morocco, one of Africa's most diversified economies, a coveted "investment-grade" label. 

But protesters complain that the prosperity has not been evenly distributed. Their main demands have been better healthcare and education, often drawing an explicit comparison to the rapid pace of tournament preparations. 

One refrain – "We do not want the World Cup. Health first" – was deployed at a hospital in the southern coastal town of Agadir last month after eight women died there in childbirth. 

Naji Achoui, a 24-year-old medical student who joined a demonstration outside Morocco's parliament in Rabat, said he was motivated by working in an emergency room that lacked basic equipment such as a CT scanner. "I see poor people suffering every day because of the dire conditions in public hospitals," he said.

Research from CESE, the country's economic and social council, last year found a quarter of Moroccans between 15 and 24 years old are not in education, employment or training.

Jihane Ratma, 19, who studies management in Sale, near Rabat, pointed to the school system's failures. "We reject violence, but both the youth that protest peacefully and those engaging in riots are all victims of public policies," she said. 

PROTESTERS MOBILISE ONLINE

Reactions to the protests suggest officials were initially wrongfooted. At first, rallies were banned and police thwarted attempts to gather. 

By the time authorities pivoted to engagement, hundreds of cars and dozens of buildings, including banks and a police station, had been ransacked or torched.

"The government and members of parliament buried their heads in the sand, leaving the security forces to deal with the fallout of failed policies," Mohamed Agdid, a retired police official, told Reuters.

The confusion was likely compounded by the anonymous character of the group calling itself "GenZ 212" – a reference to Morocco's dialing code – which mobilised protesters online using gaming app Discord, TikTok and Instagram.

Membership in its Discord server surged from 3,000 to 188,000 in just a week.  

PRESSURE ON RURAL AREAS

The protests took a particularly violent turn in rural areas such as Ait Amira, an agricultural town in Morocco's southern breadbasket region.

Over three decades, the population there has more than quadrupled, from 25,000 to around 113,000, as seasonal laborers poured in to work on nearby farms.

Services have not kept up. Joblessness is rife and illegal construction is booming. Even the language has changed, with Amazigh supplanted by Moroccan Arabic. "Ait Amira was a tinderbox waiting to explode," Khalid Alayoud, a sociologist and activist, said. 

Such problems are accompanied by a deepening loss of faith in conventional politics. Trust in political parties dropped to 33% in 2023 from 50% a year earlier, according to a survey by the Moroccan Institute for Policy Analysis, a think tank. 

Since the violence calmed, officials have struck a conciliatory tone. Employment Minister Younes Sekkouri acknowledged the "sincerity" of the protesters' demands, and Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch – whose resignation many protesters demanded – said dialogue was the only path forward. 

Many are waiting to see what the king will say when he addresses parliament's opening this month. Protesters have steered clear of red lines, including the monarchy. 

In one statement, GenZ 212 quoted a 2017 speech by the king in which he admonished officials to "either discharge your obligations fully or withdraw from public life."

(Writing by Ahmed El Jechtimi and Alex Dziadosz; Editing by Aidan Lewis)