US and Iran Show No Progress Toward Peace as Gulf Clashes Escalate
Escalating Tensions and Diplomatic Stalemate in the Gulf
By Idrees Ali, Erin Banco and Hatem Maher
WASHINGTON/CAIRO, May 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. and Iran appeared no closer on Saturday to finding an end to their war after the two sides traded fire in the Gulf amid a tenuous ceasefire, while a U.S. intelligence analysis concluded Tehran could withstand a naval blockade for months.
Recent days have seen the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago, and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack on Friday.
Washington has been awaiting Tehran's response to a U.S. proposal that would formally end the war before talks on more contentious issues, including Iran's nuclear program. Speaking in Rome on Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. was expecting a response that day, although an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran was still weighing its response.
Clashes Test Ceasefire and Regional Security
CLASHES TEST CEASEFIRE
Military Engagements in the Strait of Hormuz
Sporadic clashes continued on Friday between Iranian forces and U.S. vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported. The Tasnim news agency later cited an Iranian military source saying the situation had calmed but warning more clashes were possible.
The U.S. military said it struck two Iran-linked vessels attempting to enter an Iranian port, with a U.S. fighter jet hitting their smokestacks and forcing them to turn back.
Tehran has largely blocked non-Iranian shipping through the strait since the war began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. Before the war, one-fifth of the world's oil supply passed through the narrow waterway.
Economic Impact and Blockade Analysis
The U.S. imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels last month. But a CIA assessment indicated Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, raising questions over President Donald Trump's leverage over Tehran in a conflict that has been unpopular with voters and U.S. allies.
A senior intelligence official characterised as false the “claims” about the CIA analysis, which was first reported by the Washington Post.
Regional Escalation Beyond the Waterway
Clashes extended beyond the waterway. The UAE said its air defences engaged with two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, with three people sustaining moderate injuries.
Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. In what the UAE called a major escalation, Iran stepped up attacks this week in response to Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom" to escort ships in the strait, which he paused after 48 hours.
Trump said on Thursday the ceasefire, announced on April 7, was still holding despite the flare-ups, while Iran accused the U.S. of breaching it.
"Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure," Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran's Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and six missing after a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late on Thursday.
US Diplomatic Efforts and Sanctions Strategy
U.S. PURSUES DIPLOMACY, STEPS UP SANCTIONS
Challenges in Building International Support
The U.S. has found little international support in the conflict. After meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Rubio questioned why Italy and other allies were not backing Washington's efforts to reopen the strait, warning of a dangerous precedent if Tehran were allowed to control an international waterway.
Sanctions and Economic Pressure
While pursuing diplomacy, the U.S. also ratcheted up sanctions to pressure Iran.
New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Military Supply Chain
Days before Trump travels to China to meet President Xi Jinping, the U.S. Treasury on Friday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding efforts by Iran's military to secure weapons and raw materials used to build Tehran's Shahed drones.
Treasury said in a statement it was prepared to act against any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian commerce and could impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions including those connected to China's independent oil refineries.
(Reporting by Reuters Newsrooms; Writing by Chang-Ran Kim; Editing by William Mallard)
