Morning Bid: S&P 500 hunting cloud nine

Published : 1 month ago, on 20/08/2024

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Alun John, EMEA breaking news correspondent, finance and markets.

It’s been quite a recovery for the S&P 500 stock index since early August’s turmoil. The benchmark has risen for the past eight trading sessions, its longest streak of 2024, and is now just 1% off its mid-July record high.

The excitement, of sorts, is whether it can rise for a ninth day in a row. If it does, that would be the longest such streak since 2004, on Deutsche Bank’s calculations.

That’s a solid recovery and explains why the mood feels different from early August, when stocks were tumbling on U.S. growth worries and investors rushed to the safety of government bonds.

A general reassessment that the economic situation isn’t as bad as thought a few weeks ago is the main driver for the move, though it’s also worth keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and what they mean for oil prices as an additional factor in the mix.

Brent futures are at $76.82 a barrel at the time of writing, down 1% on the day, after a 2.5% fall Monday.

Oil strategists are pointing to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Monday remarks that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted a “bridging proposal” presented by Washington to tackle disagreements blocking a ceasefire deal in Gaza. Blinken urged Hamas to do the same.

Canada is a focus in terms of data to come, with its consumer price index due at 0830 ET.

The Bank of Canada has already cut rates twice this year, in June and July, and its public worries about slowing growth have markets nearly fully pricing another cut in September, barring a surprise in Tuesday’s data.

Sweden meanwhile delivered its second rate cut of the year on Tuesday, with its central bank cutting by 25 basis points, a sign that global monetary easing is gathering pace.

U.S. policy makers continue to flag a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, though have been steering investors away from a large 50 bps move.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari was the latest to give his thoughts.

He said it was appropriate to discuss potentially cutting U.S. rates in September because of the rising possibility of a weakening labor market, the Wall Street Journal reported. Kashkari added that he did not see any reason to lower rates in increments of larger than a quarter percentage point.

Fed chair Jerome Powell is up Friday at the big central bank symposium at Jackson Hole.

Elsewhere, the Democratic National Convention remains in the spotlight with some focus on news that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% if she wins a November election.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:

* Canada July CPI

* Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks

 

(Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Ros Russell)