Economic, Trade, and Actual Wars Impact Global Finance & Markets
Key Events and Market Reactions in Global Finance
Aug 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions on Iran
It's been a nervy start to the week for markets in Asia with the main move being a 1.5% drop in oil prices as investors await details of President Trump's economic war on Iran.
Upcoming Press Conference and Sanctions Details
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will hold a press conference at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) to reveal even more severe measures on a country that has endured near-continuous economic sanctions since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Global Implications and Political Dynamics
Trump has said sanctions will also hit any country that aids Iran, while oddly not ever mentioning Russia and China, so it will be instructive to see how Bessent manages to avoid that topic before the media.
Should there be no action against China, or India for that matter, the steps will lack credibility and oil could bounce. Analysts are also worried Tehran will retaliate with attacks against energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
Iran has already vowed to shut down all oil exports from the Gulf "if the economic war continues."
There is also a sense that the switch to sanctions, which could take months or years to bite, is an admission by the White House that the military action has failed and the conflict will drag on interminably.
Bond Markets and U.S. Treasury Actions
Bessent is also likely to face questions about his double buyback plan for bonds which have, so far, had limited success in calming the Treasury market. Yields on 30-year bonds are trading around 5.25%, within spitting distance of last week's 19-year peak of 5.3371%.
Buyback Plans and Market Skepticism
As many analysts have noted, buybacks do nothing to address the underlying problems of debt and deficits, merely swapping longer-dated debt for shorter-dated paper and likely at higher yields.
Fed Policy and Market Expectations
Bessent's effort to effectively loosen financial conditions also sits at odds with Fed Chair Warsh's seeming reliance on the bond market to tighten policy so he doesn't have to raise the cash rate and risk Trump's ire.
It will be interesting to see how Warsh deals with questions on the buyback at Jackson Hole on Friday.
Trade Wars and Currency Movements
And then there's Canada, and the increasing risk of an all-out trade war. The loonie initially dipped in reaction, but has since regained most of the loss, and at 1.3791 the greenback is not far from last week's three-month trough of 1.3729.
Carney must be wagering that adding a trade war to an actual war just weeks before the midterms will hardly endear Trump to consumers already smarting at the high cost of living.
Tech Markets and Earnings Expectations
Tech-heavy markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are also on edge for Nvidia's results on Wednesday where blockbuster earnings seem all but guaranteed, but might still not be enough to satisfy sky-high expectations. Options imply a swing of 5.0% to 6.5% in either direction after the results.
Other Key Developments to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache speech
- Chicago Fed activity survey for July
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)