Markets React to Blue Wave as Fears Mount Over Data Centre Regulation
Market Impact and Regulatory Concerns Following Democratic Wins
Nov 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
Democratic Sweep and Sector Implications
So Democrats have taken the House and Senate in decisive fashion and markets in Asia have assumed this might not be good news for data centres, AI, crypto, healthcare and financials.
Wall Street futures led the losses, followed by tech in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. European share futures are also down, maybe just in sympathy. The US dollar also suffered, while Treasuries rallied.
Potential for Increased Regulation
The reasoning goes that Democrats will favour more regulation of AI and data centres, which had become politically toxic in many races in recent months. Analysts note actually passing regulation will be tough given President Trump has vowed to veto any bills and the Democrats do not have a veto-proof majority in the Senate.
Local-Level Influence and Data Centre Expansion
However, Democrats have also taken a surprisingly large number of governorship, which will give them more power at the local level to put hurdles in the way of data centre builds, along with more rules on water and power requirements.
In particular, analysts were concerned the flip of the Texas governorship could really hit the massive expansion of data centres in the state.
Policy Shifts and Investigation Risks
When the Democratic majority takes over in early January, analysts assume they will launch a round of investigations into the Trump administration, the Iran war, tariffs, immigration policy and plenty of other policies. As JPMorgan carefully noted, there would be 'investigation risk' for business leaders tied to Trump donations including MegaCap Tech.
Bond Markets and Fiscal Policy Expectations
For bond markets, the early assumption was that the election result might limit further government deficit spending, including on defence.
Democrats do favour restoring spending on health and food stamps, though again that could be vetoed by Trump. It just so happens, the Treasury refunding announcement is due later Wednesday and the market has been looking for less borrowing at the longer-end.
Economic Growth, Inflation, and Rate Expectations
More hurdles to data centres would also throw a spanner in the major engine of U.S. economic growth right now, which might lessen inflationary pressure.
That helped lift Fed fund futures, which took about 6 basis points of hikes out from next year. Two-year yields were down almost 8 basis points at a two-month trough of 5.5458%.
Currency and Commodity Market Responses
In other markets, the drop in yields combined with the paring of rate hikes to push the dollar broadly lower, mainly to the benefit of the yen, euro and Swiss franc.
Oil prices are also down, perhaps on concerns Trump will renew strikes on Iran now the midterms are over and his domestic policy options will be limited by a Democratic House.
Key Developments to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
• EU CPI and US ISM for October, US trade balance for September
• Riksbank policy decision
• ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
