Dollar Dips as Markets Monitor Federal Reserve Minutes and Rate Hike Signals
Market Reactions and Central Bank Developments
By Rocky Swift
Dollar and Euro Movements Amid Bond Market Stress
TOKYO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The US dollar remained lower on Wednesday after stress in European bond markets abated and as eyes turned to the release of Federal Reserve minutes and speeches by its policymakers for signals on a potential rate hike.
The euro surged by the most in seven weeks in the prior session as French bond yields slid after the frontrunner in next spring's presidential election outlined plans to slash spending. The yen weakened even after a dovish Bank of Japan board member said she would support interest rate increases.
Federal Reserve Minutes and Policy Signals
Later on Wednesday, the US central bank is due to release minutes of its September 15-16 policy meeting when it raised interest rates to contend with inflation. Comments from Fed policymakers have come across as less hawkish following lower-than-expected personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data and jobs data last week.
"There seems to be a little bit less urgency on the Fed to hike rates after the softer PCE and then the nonfarm payroll reports recently," Gavin Friend, a senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank, said on a podcast.
Currency Indexes and Global Movements
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.03% to 101.94, following a 0.27% slide in the prior session. The euro eased 0.08% to $1.1249.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.19% against the greenback to 158.43 per dollar. Sterling dipped 0.08% to $1.3262.
Bond Yields and Political Developments in Europe
Bond yields around the world have climbed in recent weeks due to expectations of central bank rate hikes as well as concerns about government finances.
French and Spanish Political Impact
French debt is under growing pressure as politicians struggle to curb the budget deficit ahead of a divisive election in 2027. The calling of a snap election in Spain added to the recent stress on the euro.
Le Pen's Spending Cut Plans
The euro rallied sharply on Tuesday after far-right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen raised her target for spending cuts to €140 billion ($158 billion) from €125 billion in savings originally planned if she wins power in 2027.
Bank of Japan Policy Outlook
The Bank of Japan's new policymaker Ayano Sato said in an interview with the Kyodo news agency on Wednesday that she supports the idea of raising interest rates in several stages.
The BOJ may signal this month that underlying inflation has roughly hit its 2% target, three people familiar with its thinking said, highlighting its readiness to raise interest rates again.
October Fed Hike Expectations Retreat
OCTOBER FED HIKE EXPECTATIONS RETREAT
Expectations for a Fed rate hike later this month have retreated but markets are still anticipating more increases later in the year and next year.
Fed Officials' Views and Market Pricing
In contrast to the recent call for patience from some Fed officials, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday that the central bank still needs to raise its policy rate further to lower inflation, even if higher long-term yields are weighing on activity in some parts of the economy.
The chance of a hike of at least 25 basis points in October stands at 20.5%, from about 51% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch, but markets are pricing in an 84.5% chance of a hike at the December meeting.
"With little forward guidance from Chair (Kevin) Warsh, markets have reacted sharply to each US data release and policymaker speech," Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Samara Hammoud said in a report. "We expect the Fed to wait until December before hiking again."
Upcoming Fed Speeches and Data Releases
Fed officials Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are all due to speak later on Wednesday. The central bank is also scheduled to release consumer credit data, which is expected to show a decrease to $15 billion in August from $18.06 billion in July.
Other Currency and Crypto Market Movements
The Australian dollar weakened 0.04% versus the greenback to $0.6979, while the kiwi slid 0.07% to $0.5617.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.22% to $85,438.59, and ether declined 0.12% to $2,695.22.
(Reporting by Rocky Swift; Editing by Jamie Freed)