Saudi Arabia Set for Major Assault on Houthis to Reclaim Red Sea Access
Saudi Arabia's Planned Offensive Against Houthi Militants
By Timour Azhari and Mubasher Bukhari
Overview of the Planned Operation
RIYADH, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.
The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will by led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.
While the US is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh's operations in Yemen, and some regional and European nations are providing mainly defensive military aid to the kingdom, the Saudi allies aren't expected to play a direct role in combat operations, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss security matters.
Background: Saudi Involvement in Yemen
Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognised government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war.
Objectives and Strategic Importance
A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn't been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to the people with knowledge of the plans who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats.
The Saudis are considering two possible options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: Either a narrowly focused attack on the area around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes other synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said.
Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn't immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.
Bab el-Mandeb: A Critical Chokepoint
Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that's assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.
Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said.
Timing and Scope of the Offensive
The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn't give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to until after the US midterm elections in early November.
Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants.
"As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb," he added. "Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic."
Regional Dynamics and International Involvement
Iran's Influence and Regional Tensions
The Houthis have become Iran's most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel's degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.
A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.
International Support and Military Aid
US Involvement
TRUMP, TURKEY AND PAKISTAN
Washington, Saudi Arabia's most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence including targeting information to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats.
However, the extent of support may be limited. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes.
Turkey and Pakistan's Role
Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.
Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defence systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said.
Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added.
Security Concerns and Defensive Measures
One of the kingdom's key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems.
Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom's land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. Islamabad hasn't made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, the official said.
The Pakistani and Turkish defence ministries didn't respond to requests for comm
