Explainer-Could Farage's plan for mass deportation of asylum seekers from UK work?

By Andrew MacAskill and Michael Holden

LONDON (Reuters) -Nigel Farage's Reform UK set out plans this week for the mass deportation of asylum seekers from Britain, which would involve withdrawing from human rights treaties and working with authoritarian governments to take back their citizens.

Reform UK, which currently has only four seats in parliament but which is leading in most opinion polls, said its changes to asylum law would mean it could deport 600,000 asylum seekers in its first five-year term if it wins the next general election, which is expected in 2029.

This would be one of the most radical attempts by a European country to deal with illegal immigration.

WHERE DOES THE FIGURE OF 600,000 COME FROM?

Successive British governments - under the Conservatives for more than a decade, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party since July last year - have wrestled for years with how to deal with asylum seekers entering the country illegally. Proponents of leaving the European Union, which Britain did in 2020 after a 2016 referendum, argued it would stem uncontrolled immigration.

It is hard to pin down precise figures on how many people are living undocumented in Britain. 

Reform says there are about 1 million people in the country illegally - without breaking down the numbers - hence its assertion that it could try to deport up to 600,000 people.

Official government figures from June 2024 showed there were 224,742 cases in the asylum system, while many more undocumented individuals are also likely to be in the country, such as people who have overstayed work and holiday visas. 

In particular, governments have failed to stop people coming to Britain in small boats from Europe. 

Since 2018, more than 179,000 people have arrived on small boats, according to government data, with around 4% being returned. More than 28,000 asylum seekers have crossed the Channel and arrived in Britain so far this year, a record number, and up almost 50% on the same period last year. 

WHAT CONVENTIONS WOULD THE UK HAVE TO LEAVE?

Farage and other right-wing parties and lawmakers have long called for Britain to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), arguing that it prevents asylum seekers who have arrived unlawfully from being deported to their homelands or to other states.

When the Supreme Court, Britain's top judicial body, ruled in 2023 that the then Conservative government's scheme to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was unlawful, court President Robert Reed said there were other international treaties that also prohibited the return of asylum seekers to their countries of origin without a proper examination of their claims.  

Reform's plans would therefore require Britain not just to leave the ECHR, but to "disapply" the Refugee Convention, the Council of Europe Convention on Action against Trafficking, the United Nations Convention against Torture, and the United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

WHAT WOULD IT MEAN TO LEAVE THE CONVENTIONS?

The most significant implication would be leaving the ECHR which provides guarantees in Northern Ireland's 1998 Good Friday agreement, which mostly ended three decades of violence and was underpinned by legislation setting out a power-sharing arrangement for the British province.

Some smaller political parties in Northern Ireland have criticised Reform's plan as reckless and politicians in the United States - which helped negotiate the peace deal - have previously voiced concern over making any changes to the agreement.    

Farage said that the peace deal could be renegotiated but that it would take time.

Pulling out of the other conventions would leave Britain in a minority on the international stage. More than 170 nations are parties to the convention on torture, including both the United States and Russia. 

Some lawyers suggest that while Britain might be able to pull out of international agreements, English common law protections against torture might mean courts could still block deportations.

HOW RADICAL WOULD THE POLICY BE?

Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford's Migration Observatory, said that if Reform's policies were implemented it would be the most radical attempt by any European country in recent decades to deal with illegal immigration, as it would entail a willingness to return asylum seekers to countries where they are at risk of torture.

Asked about the possibilities that some people might be at risk of torture or persecution if returned to their home countries, Farage said his main concern was what was happening on British streets, to British citizens.

(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill and Michael HoldenEditing by Frances Kerry)