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UK economic growth downgraded to 1% in 2027, Healey says in first budget - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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UK economic growth downgraded to 1% in 2027, Healey says in first budget

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 28, 2026

1 min read

· Last updated: October 28, 2026

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Britain's Economic Growth Forecast Cut to 1% for 2027 in Healey's First Budget

Overview of the UK's Revised Economic Growth Projections

Current Economic Forecast for 2027

LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Britain's economy is forecast to grow by 1% next year, finance minister John Healey said on Wednesday, citing the latest projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Comparison with Previous Forecasts

The new figure compared with a growth forecast for 2027 of 1.6% in the OBR's previous outlook published in March and prepared before the start of the Iran war.

Long-Term Economic Projections

Forecasts for 2028 to 2031

The OBR expects economic output to expand by 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031, Healey said as he gave his first budget statement speech to parliament.

Comparison with Previous Long-Term Growth Expectations

Those projections compared with the budget watchdog's previous expectations for growth of 1.6% in 2028 and 1.5% in 2029 and in 2030. 

Upgraded Growth for 2026

Growth in 2026 was upgraded slightly to 1.2%, up from the previous forecast of 1.1%.

(Reporting by David Milliken and Andy Bruce; writing by Suban Abdulla;)

Key Takeaways

  • OBR cuts UK GDP growth forecast for 2027 to 1.0%, down from 1.6%; modest upward revision for 2026 to 1.2%.
  • Growth is projected to pick up in subsequent years: 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030, and 1.6% in 2031.
  • Forecast recalibration reflects the fallout from the Iran war and weaker medium‑term outlook amid elevated borrowing and inflation pressures.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which organization provided the economic projections?
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) provided the updated economic projections.
Who announced the latest UK economic projections?
Finance minister John Healey announced the projections in his first budget statement.

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