Oil falls on hopes for US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Oil Prices Drop Amid Ceasefire Negotiations
By Erwin Seba
Market Reaction to Ceasefire Hopes
HOUSTON, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil futures fell more than 2% on Friday, closing out their steepest weekly decline since early April as traders awaited word that the U.S., Israel and Iran had reached agreement on a ceasefire.
Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66, or 1.8%. WTI U.S. oil futures finished at $87.36 a barrel, down $1.54 or 1.7%.
"Obviously, the market thinks the ceasefire will be all easy-peasy and is done and dusted," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
Background on the US-Iran Conflict
The three-month war between the U.S. and Iran has been marked by frequent chatter of an impending end to the conflict that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, used to transit one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Even with both sides suggesting an agreement was forthcoming, their characterizations of the deal were still somewhat different.
Iran's Position on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Fars news agency said the agreement - which it has not decided yet to approve - required Iran to open the strait without restrictions but the Islamic Republic would reopen the waterway "according to its own pre-determined arrangements." Iran has said after the conflict that it would regulate traffic through the strait, charging fees to transit.
US Response and Market Volatility
U.S. President Donald Trump has said called again on Iran to immediately re-open the strait. The closure of the waterway has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. Recent sessions have been volatile, with swings by as much as $6 for both benchmarks on conflicting signals over a potential reopening of the strait.
"The questions are when are we going to open the strait? I wonder when are we going to hit the bottoms of the tanks," Kilduff said. "I'm surprised prices aren't higher."
Weekly Performance and Analyst Insights
Brent has plunged by about 11% this week, its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks. WTI has dropped by more than 9% for its biggest weekly loss in six. Both benchmarks hit their lowest price since mid-April.
"While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted and oil inventories keep falling, the market focus remains on the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
"The price drop could be forcing some market players to close their long positions."
Outlook for Oil Supply and Demand
Ceasefire Agreement and Shipping Restrictions
The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters.
Traffic through the maritime chokepoint remains a small fraction of levels before the conflict. Analysts at ING said a reopening of the waterway would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.
Global Impact and Forecasts
Japan, which relies heavily on oil from the Middle East, last month registered a 66% drop in crude oil imports compared with April last year.
Commerzbank raised its Brent forecasts to $90 a barrel by the end of September and $85 by the end of the year, based on a scenario in which the strait remains closed to normal shipping for another two months.
US Oil Inventories and Exports
U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, as demand from refiners and consumers rose, while exports fell by 1.16 million barrels per day to 4.4 million bpd. [EIA/S]
(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston. Additional reporting by Seher Dareen, Shadia Nasralla, Helen Clark and Sudarshan Varadhan. Editing by Mark Potter, Kirsten Donovan)
