Novo CEO: Weight-Loss Pills Could Seize Half the Obesity Drug Market by 2030
Novo Nordisk's Strategic Shift Towards Oral Obesity Treatments
By Patrick Wingrove
Market Outlook and Company Positioning
LONDON, Sept 22 - Weight-loss pills could capture as much as half of the global obesity drug market by 2030, Novo Nordisk's chief executive told Reuters on Tuesday, as the Danish drugmaker positions itself for a shift away from weekly injections.
CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo was preparing for a market in which pills play a much larger role. The company has five oral treatments in development after beating rival Eli Lilly to market with the first obesity pill earlier this year.
Competitive Landscape: Pills vs. Injectables
Doustdar told Reuters after Novo's Capital Markets Day in London that competitors remained heavily focused on injectables, which still dominate the market, a dynamic he said could favour Novo over the longer term.
"What happens if by 2030 the market is 50/50 (pills-to-injectables)?" he said, noting that rivals' pipelines contain eight injectables for every two pills under development. "We are preparing ourselves for all scenarios, including that one."
Changing Fortunes and Market Projections
Exceeding Wall Street Expectations
CHANGING FORTUNES
If realised, that split would exceed Wall Street forecasts, which expect oral treatments to account for about 14% to 40% of an obesity market projected to reach between $100 billion and $150 billion by 2030.
Impact of Wegovy and Market Share Dynamics
Novo's fortunes have reversed sharply since the 2021 launch of its Wegovy weight-loss medication helped make it Europe's most valuable listed company. Its shares have tumbled more than 70% from their peak as Lilly has overtaken its market share.
Oral Therapies and Prescription Trends
The company has found some relief in its Wegovy pill. Oral therapies now account for about a third of US obesity prescriptions following the pill's rollout, according to company presentations on Monday, with Novo capturing more than 80% of new oral prescriptions.
The pill generated nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns ($843 million) in first-half sales.
Pipeline and Patent Protection
Next-Generation Oral Treatments
Novo's oral obesity pipeline includes next-generation dual-acting tablet zenagamtide, an oral amylin analogue and a small-molecule drug.
Patent Protection and Investor Concerns
Doustdar added oral Wegovy was protected from generic competition into the "mid and late 30s" through patents covering its SNAC delivery technology, addressing investor concerns over a patent cliff when active ingredient semaglutide loses exclusivity in the early 2030s.
(Reporting by Patrick Wingrove in London. Editing by Mark Potter)
