Markets Brace for US Jobs Report with Federal Reserve Policy in Focus
Market Sentiment Ahead of Key Economic Data
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
Investor Caution Before U.S. Payrolls Report
Markets are mostly in a holding pattern as traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. payrolls report which is getting notoriously difficult to predict month by month.
Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty
However, the stakes couldn't be higher as markets cannot seem to make up their mind about how the Federal Reserve will move next month. An interest rate hike is about 54% priced in – basically a coin toss, which is precisely the sort of ambiguity new Chair Kevin Warsh seems to enjoy cultivating.
Payrolls Forecast and Unemployment Expectations
The consensus forecast is for a gain of 80,000 jobs for July but the range is so wide - from 10,000 to 140,000 - that someone will be terribly wrong. Unemployment is forecast to hold steady at a still low rate of 4.2%, though there's a clique of analysts tipping 4.3%.
Implications for Policy and Markets
So what's the playbook? With inflation risks front of mind for policymakers, an in-line or stronger result would mean the Federal Reserve can hike next month if it's needed without torpedoing the labour market. It would take a much weaker outcome for markets to give up rate hike bets en masse.
Global Market Reactions
Reflecting this suspense, Asian markets had one of their quieter days. Japan and South Korea slipped about 1%, but nothing like the wild swings of recent weeks. Chinese shares eked out gains as its huge export machine kept powering ahead.
European futures are pointing to a slightly softer open, with the pan-region stock index down 0.2%. Wall Street futures were flat.
Commodities in Focus: Oil Market Activity
The one pocket of activity was in oil, which climbed 1% on Friday as a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz seems further away than previously assumed. Washington is probably not happy about Tehran's reported demand to bar "hostile" vessels and levy hefty fees on cargo, while the risk of more attacks is ever present.
Brent crude rose 1.2% to $83.5 a barrel, adding to an overnight gain of nearly 4%, but it's still well off the recent peak of $102.
Key Economic Events to Watch
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July
• German industrial output, trade data for June
• French trade data for June
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
