German June industrial orders rise more than expected in June
Analysis of June Industrial Order Data and Economic Implications
By Maria Martinez
Overview of Industrial Orders Growth
Aug 6 (Reuters) - German industrial orders rose more than expected in June, but owed their jump to large-scale orders and a downward revision of the previous month's figure, data showed on Thursday, leaving analysts cautious about the economy's underlying strength.
Orders increased by 3.1% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, the statistics office said, rising for the second consecutive month, and well ahead of a 0.3% rise forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts.
Expert Commentary on Economic Performance
"All in all, it appears that the economy is performing somewhat better than had been thought just a short time ago," said Jens-Oliver Niklasch, an economist at Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (LBBW).
Risks and Threats to Economic Stability
However, the risk posed by volatile oil prices loomed over the economy, while low water levels in major rivers in Europe have added a new potential threat to industrial supply chains and the broader economy.
Detailed Breakdown of Order Data
'THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
Excluding large-scale orders, new orders were 0.5% lower than in the previous month, while the May increase was revised to 0.3% from a previously reported 1.9% as a result of an adjustment for price changes.
Impact of Large-Scale Orders and Sector Performance
"The devil is in the detail for this release," said Melanie Debono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointing to large orders and the revision of May data.
Several large-scale orders were reported in the machinery and equipment manufacturing sector which showed an 12.7% increase in orders, and the computer, electronics and optics manufacturing sector, where orders jumped 22.7%, the statistics office said.
Three-Month Comparison and Recovery Outlook
In the less volatile three-month comparison, new orders were 1.3% higher between April and June than in the preceding three months. However, excluding large orders, they remained unchanged.
"All of this once again points to only a moderate recovery for the German manufacturing sector this year," said Vincent Stamer, senior economist at Commerzbank.
Domestic and Foreign Orders
Foreign orders were up 0.2% in June 2026, with orders from the euro zone falling by 14.0% and orders from outside the euro area rising by 10.2%.
Domestic orders rose by 7.8% on the month, the statistics office said.
Structural Challenges and Economic Outlook
There has been no fundamental improvement in the structural problems at home and the external economic environment remains highly uncertain, said Jupp Zenzen, economic expert at the German Chamber of Commerce DIHK.
"It is still too early to declare an economic turnaround," Zenzen said. "A long-term growth trajectory requires sustainable reforms that have a tangible impact on businesses."
Reporting Credits
(Reporting by Tristan Veyet in Gdansk and Maria Martinez in Berlin, Editing by Miranda Murray, Linda Pasquini and Tomasz Janowski)
