Everything You Need to Know About Spain’s November 2024 Snap Election
Key Insights and Analysis of Spain's Upcoming Election
Oct 5 (Reuters) - Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called an early election for November 29 that he hopes will hand him a parliamentary majority but which could just as easily usher in a conservative coalition, as the centre-left bloc trails in most opinion polls.
Here is what you need to know about the election:
Polls and Political Landscape
Polls Pitch Right-Wing Coalition as Likeliest Outcome
• Sanchez's Socialist Party (PSOE) has long trailed in the polls, hovering around 28% and never above 33% throughout his eight years in office.
• Parties further to the left, which will be key for Sanchez to cobble together a coalition, are currently polling at around 8%.
• A coalition between the conservative People's Party (PP) and far-right Vox is the only combination projected to win enough votes for an absolute majority in the 350-seat lower house of parliament.
• Voting intention for Vox stands at roughly 18%, propelled by younger and male voters.
Issues Likely to Dominate the Electoral Campaign
Housing
• Housing will dominate the left's agenda, with Sanchez taking the decision to call the election after protests erupted across the country following the high-profile eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her Madrid home.
Immigration
• Immigration is likely to be another defining issue, both for Sanchez as one of Europe's loudest advocates of immigration's benefits for society and the economy, recently granting legal status to nearly a million undocumented migrants, and for Vox, which wants far tighter controls. The mass crossing of 72,000 migrants into Ceuta in July has overwhelmed local authorities and triggered major political disputes over Spain's ability to control its borders.
Corruption
• Corruption: Opposition parties are expected to make corruption a central theme of the election campaign, seeking to tie Sanchez to a series of investigations, trials and convictions involving members of his inner circle and family. Sanchez has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and argued that some of the cases form part of a politically motivated campaign against his government.
Candidates for Prime Minister
Pablo Sanchez
• Sanchez, the incumbent, will run again for the Socialists, having spearheaded the party since 2017.
• Now seeking a third term after eight years in office, he is already Spain's second-longest-serving premier since the country returned to democracy in 1978.
• Despite a tenure dogged in the past two years by corruption investigations, the Socialist leader is betting that the housing crisis and the prospect of a far-right party coming to power will help mobilise left-leaning voters who might have otherwise abstained.
Alberto Nuñez Feijoo
• Alberto Nuñez Feijoo, former president of the region of Galicia, will run against Sanchez representing the People's Party, which he has led since April 2022.
• A four-time winner of presidential elections in Galicia, Feijoo built a reputation in his years governing the region as a moderate and pragmatic administrator.
• The PP emerged as the largest party in the 2023 general election but failed to secure enough support to form a government, leaving Feijoo as leader of the opposition.
• Since then, Feijoo has sought to position the PP as a government-in-waiting, piling criticism on Sanchez for everything from his policies to the corruption allegations encircling his party.
A Cabinet Role for the Far Right?
Vox's Potential Influence
• Polls project that the PP would rely on far-right Vox to govern, giving a far-right party a role in cabinet for the first time since the death of former dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.
• Its leader is Santiago Abascal, who built his political profile in the Basque Country opposing separatism and co-founded the party in 2014 alongside others defecting from or seeking an alternative to the PP.
• Under Abascal, Vox has evolved from a minor political force into the country's third-largest party. It advocates tougher immigration controls, recentralisation of state powers, lower taxes and the reversal of many progressive social policies.
A Mobilised Left? The 'Broad Front'
Formation and Strategy
• A swathe of parties to the left of PSOE are planning to launch a new common platform called "Broad Front" (Frente Amplio), which will be Sanchez's best hope of maintaining power if it supports the Socialists in coalition as previously. The alliance would replace Sumar, a hard-left platform founded in 2023 by Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz which acted as coalition partner to Sanchez's government in his final term.
• The new front will name a leadership candidate at a launch event on October 17, after Diaz said she would not stand as leader again.
• Podemos, former junior coalition partners to PSOE who take a more critical line than Sumar, has for now refused to join the front, opting to run separately unless open primaries are held.
Other Parties
Regional and Minor Parties
• Spain's parliament is highly fragmented, giving minor parties that hold just a handful of seats the power to tip the scales on passing policy.
• The country's historically distinct regions feature four separatist parties: EH Bildu in the Basque Country, BNG in Galicia, and two in Catalonia — the left-leaning ERC and the right-leaning Junts.
• While EH Bildu, BNG and ERC have broadly supported Sanchez, Junts has frequently vetoed his government's measures, including the housing decrees that prompted the prime minister to dissolve parliament.
Reporting and Editorial Credits
(Reporting by David Latona, Emma Pinedo, Mireia Merino and Victoria Waldersee; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
