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UN weather body says El Niño set to intensify and last until February 2027 - Headlines news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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UN weather body says El Niño set to intensify and last until February 2027

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 8, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: October 8, 2026

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UN: El Niño Set to Intensify, Persist, and Break Records Until Early 2027

El Niño 2027 Outlook and Global Impacts

UN and WMO Climate Projections

SINGAPORE, Oct 8 (Reuters) - This year's El Niño will intensify before peaking in December and is nearly 100% certain to last until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization said in its monthly climate bulletin on Thursday, with sea surface temperatures set to break records.

WMO Secretary General’s Statement

"WMO forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that (El Niño) will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950," WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said in a statement released with the bulletin.

Record-Breaking Sea Surface Temperatures

The UN weather body said sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño phenomenon, were expected to reach a record 3.7 degrees Celsius (6.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal from October to December.

Comparison to Previous Records

The forecast temperature anomaly is significantly higher than the previous record of 2.6C from November 2015 to January 2016, it said.

Ocean Heat and El Niño Intensity

"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," Saulo said.

Understanding El Niño and Its Effects

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Cycle

El Niño is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a climate pattern that influences weather around the world. 

Global Weather Disruptions

It tends to cause higher global temperatures and disrupt rainfall patterns across large regions – meaning drought in some areas and heavy rains in others  and typically occurs every two to seven years.

Recent Climate Data and Human Impact

Record Global Temperatures

Mean global temperatures in August reached 16.96C, tying with July 2023 as the hottest month on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

Projected Human Toll

Excess Deaths Linked to Super-El Niño

Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab predicted last month that this year's "super-El Niño" was likely to result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June to February 2027.

(Reporting by David Stanway; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

Key Takeaways

  • WMO forecasts indicate an almost 100 % probability El Niño will last until February 2027, potentially becoming one of the strongest since 1950, with Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching around +3.7 °C for Oct–Dec 2026. (public.wmo.int)
  • August 2026 was globally tied with July 2023 as the hottest month ever recorded, with an average surface temperature of 16.96 °C—0.85 °C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.65 °C above pre‑industrial levels. (climate.copernicus.eu)
  • A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab study estimates that the intensified El Niño may drive up to ~451,000 excess heat‑related deaths worldwide from June 2026 through February 2027. (climate.uchicago.edu)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

How long is the current El Niño expected to last?
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that El Niño will last until at least February 2027.
Will this El Niño event set new temperature records?
Yes, sea surface temperatures are expected to reach a record 3.7°C above normal from October to December.
How does El Niño impact global weather patterns?
El Niño tends to cause higher global temperatures, disrupt rainfall, and result in droughts or heavy rains across different regions.
What are the potential health impacts of this El Niño?
Researchers estimate that the 'super-El Niño' could result in up to 451,000 excess deaths globally between June and February 2027.

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