Oil Soars, Big Tech Cash Burn & Yields Surge: Global Markets In Turmoil
Global Market Reactions and Key Developments
By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, July 23 (Reuters) - European and U.S. stocks slumped while bond yields shot higher on Thursday, with global markets rocked by oil's surge above $100 a barrel and earnings reports from two U.S. "Big Tech" companies that showed they are burning through cash at an alarming rate.
Recommended Reading for Deeper Insights
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
Top 5 Articles
1. Alphabet's cash burn raises alarm for Big Tech as AI spending climbs
2. Trump vows to punish Iran for Houthi attacks in Red Sea; oil surges over $100
3. ECB keeps rates unchanged but September hike stays in play
4. Warsh's no-guidance approach confronts a hawkish world and hawkish Fed colleagues
5. U.S. Treasury bill issuance grows, heightens long-term risk
Today's Key Market Moves
Market Performance Overview
• STOCKS: South Korea +4%, Japan +0.5%. Europe -1.3%, UK -0.7%. S&P 500 -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.2%.
• SECTORS/SHARES: "Mag 7" shares, consumer discretionaries -5%, biggest falls since April last year. Industrials +1.8%. Tesla -15%, T-Mobile -11%, Alphabet -7%, Amazon -5%. Lockheed Martin +10%, Intel +12% after the bell.
• FX: Dollar/yen shoots up towards 164.00, a new 40-year high. Euro 3-week low after ECB, South African rand world's worst performer, -3%, after central bank keeps rates on hold.
• BONDS: 2-year JGB yield hits 1.50%, highest since 1995. 2-year German yield highest in two years. U.S. yields hit highest in 18 months, 30-year U.S. real yield highest since 2008. Ugly 10-year TIPS auction — highest yield since 2008.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil leaps 6-7%, now +40% y/y. Brent tops $100, WTI over $90. Gold -2%.
Today's Talking Points
Running Hot: Inflation and Oil Prices
Relief from the June U.S. CPI and PPI inflation reports last week has surely evaporated. Oil is soaring again as war in the Middle East flares up — Brent is over $100 a barrel and WTI is above $90 — and the latest weekly jobless claims figures suggest the U.S. economy is humming along just fine (for now). Initial claims fell to 187,000 last week, the lowest since the summer of 1969.
Impact on Yields and Borrowing Costs
Little wonder Treasuries are tanking. Two- and 10-year U.S. yields are the highest in 18 months, and the 30-year yield is close to a new post-2007 high. The 30-year "real yield" is the highest since 2008, nudging 3%. Rates traders are now pricing in 60 bps of Fed hikes by April. Wall Street, especially Big Tech and big borrowers, doesn't like it one bit. Main Street won't either — gas is above $4/gallon and 30-year mortgage rates are the highest in a year. Both are rising too.
No-Flow Zone: Big Tech's Cash Burn
Alphabet and Tesla results after the bell on Wednesday confirmed what analysts had been warning — and investors had been doing their best to ignore — for a while: they're burning cash. Alphabet's free cash flow in Q1 turned negative for the first time since the company floated more than 20 years ago, and Tesla's FCF turned negative for the first time in two years.
AI Spending and Future Outlook
Once prized for fat margins and cash gushers that could easily fund new bets, Big Tech is now relying on debt and share sales to bankroll AI spending, which is set to top $700 billion this year as their cash flows fall short. Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Amazon report results next week — buckle up.
No Changing of Lagarde: ECB Policy
The world's second-biggest central bank kept interest rates on hold on Thursday, but is on track to raise them at its next meeting in September. That is how markets interpreted post-decision comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who noted that a move today was discussed and the full extent of the second oil shock underway has yet to be felt.
Energy Prices and Euro Zone Growth
That's certainly true. Not only is oil on a tear, European natural gas prices have exploded 60% in the last month, and on Thursday hit their highest level since just after the U.S.-Iran war started. Rates traders are pricing in a 70% chance the ECB hikes again in September, and are anticipating around 75 bps of tightening in total over the next year or so. Can sluggish euro zone growth withstand that?
What Could Move Markets Tomorrow?
Upcoming Economic Data and Events
• PMIs for Japan, euro zone, UK, U.S. (July)
• Japan CPI inflation (June)
• UK retail sales (June)
• European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks
• U.S. earnings, including American Express, Verizon
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Disclaimer
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
