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TotalEnergies says Iran war could accelerate energy transition - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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TotalEnergies says Iran war could accelerate energy transition

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on November 2, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: November 2, 2026

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TotalEnergies: Iran War Could Accelerate Decline in Global Oil Demand

TotalEnergies' Outlook on Global Oil Demand and the Energy Transition

(Corrects headline to say war could accelerate the transition, not that company expects it to; no change to text)

By Dominique Patton

Peak Oil Demand Projections

PARIS, Nov 2 (Reuters) - French oil major TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to peak in the years between 2035 and 2040, its chief sustainability officer said on Monday, with potential for demand to decline faster if sales of electric vehicles continue to grow.

Annual Energy Outlook Report

The company's annual energy outlook report projects that global demand for petroleum products will increase and plateau during the 2030s before beginning a slow decline. Last year's forecast had expected oil demand to rise until 2040 before declining gradually. 

Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Markets

Effects of the US-Israeli War with Iran

The report said the crisis in energy markets triggered by the US-Israeli war with Iran could, however, act as an "accelerator" of the energy transition, pointing to a sharp increase in EV sales in Asia, Latin America and Europe, and an increase in biofuel blending requirements that were influencing energy consumption patterns.

Acceleration of Low-Carbon Technology

Chief sustainability officer Aurelien Hamelle told reporters there had been a "stunning acceleration" of low-carbon technology between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026.

(Reporting by Dominique Patton; Editing by Alison Williams)

Key Takeaways

  • TotalEnergies now sees global oil demand plateauing in the 2030s and beginning to decline, earlier than prior outlooks peaking around 2040. (marketscreener.com)
  • The US‑Israeli war with Iran is seen by TotalEnergies as a possible “accelerator” of the energy transition, boosting EV sales in Asia, Latin America and Europe, and increasing biofuel mandates. (rystadenergy.com)
  • Chief sustainability officer Aurelien Hamelle highlighted a “stunning acceleration” in low‑carbon technology deployment between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, strengthening transition momentum. (totalenergies.com)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What does TotalEnergies predict about future global oil demand?
TotalEnergies expects global oil demand to peak between 2035 and 2040, with the potential for a faster decline if electric vehicle sales continue to grow.
How could the Iran conflict affect the energy transition?
TotalEnergies' report suggests that the war involving Iran could accelerate the energy transition due to changes in consumption patterns and increased EV sales.
What trends are influencing the acceleration of energy transition?
A sharp rise in electric vehicle sales in Asia, Latin America, and Europe, along with increased biofuel blending requirements, are highlighted as key trends.
Has TotalEnergies changed its oil demand outlook?
Yes. The recent outlook now expects oil demand to plateau earlier than the previous year's forecast, possibly peaking before 2040.
Who commented on the acceleration of low-carbon technology?
Aurelien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ chief sustainability officer, mentioned a 'stunning acceleration' in low-carbon technology adoption.

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