Sterling Climbs to One-Month High Versus Dollar Amid Rate Hike Hopes
Market Reactions and Economic Factors Influencing Sterling
Sterling and Euro Movements
LONDON, July 10 (Reuters) - The pound rose on Friday to an almost one-month high against the dollar and a one-year peak versus the euro as markets mulled central banks' likely response to the latest rise in energy prices stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Sterling rose to $1.345 on Friday, the highest since June 15, and was last up 0.1%.
Meanwhile the euro fell to 85.18 pence, the lowest against the pound since late June 2025, before paring its losses to trade flat.
Drivers Behind Sterling's Strength
Analysts have debated the reasons for the strength in sterling in recent weeks with better-than-expected growth, foreign companies purchasing UK firms, a calming of political instability, and Bank of England policy all cited.
Bank of England's Policy Impact
Monex Europe senior FX strategist Barry van der Laan said comments late on Thursday from Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill that interest rates will have to rise were likely supporting the pound on Friday.
"That message reinforced the market's view that the Bank of England still has less room to look through inflation than the Fed or the ECB," said Van der Laan.
Yet he added: "With no important UK data today, sterling is likely to be driven by broader dollar moves, oil prices and Middle East headlines."
Economic Outlook and Energy Prices
IMF Forecasts and UK Growth
The International Monetary Fund this week upgraded its UK growth forecasts, predicting a 1% expansion in 2026. The outlook for Britain, a major energy importer, has been improved by the June U.S.-Iran deal and subsequent slide in oil prices.
The IMF said Britain would be the third-fastest growing economy in the G7 this year behind Canada and the U.S, outstripping the euro zone countries.
Oil Price Fluctuations
However, oil prices have risen around 5% this week as the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes and the U.S. cancelled an Iranian oil trading waiver.
Brent crude was last trading roughly flat at $76 a barrel, although it remained well below April's high of $126.
Political Developments in the UK
Labour Leadership and Market Sentiment
Former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham took a big step to becoming the next prime minister on Thursday after he secured the support of the vast majority of Labour members of parliament to replace Keir Starmer.
Impact on Sterling
Some analysts have said the clarity on the next leader and Burnham's commitment to the fiscal rules has helped the pound slightly, although they caution UK markets could become more turbulent once he starts outlining economic policies.
(Reporting by Harry Robertson; edting by Philippa Fletcher)
