IEA cuts Russian oil output forecasts on Ukrainian attacks
Impact of Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Production
IEA Revises Russian Oil Output Forecasts
MOSCOW, July 10 (Reuters) - Russian oil output will decline by about 3% to 8.9 million barrels per day this year because of Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, making a downward revision to its estimates.
Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on Russian energy facilities, including oil refineries, seeking to stifle Moscow's war efforts.
Production Outlook and Supply Adjustments
"Continued strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure underpin a weaker production outlook and we have accordingly cut our Russian supply outlook for this year and next, by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 bpd respectively, to average 8.8 million bpd over the forecast period," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly outlook.
Domestic Fuel Shortages and Export Restrictions
The attacks have also resulted in a diesel export ban introduced by Russia this week, in addition to restrictions on overseas sales of gasoline and jet fuel, to tackle domestic fuel shortages.
Russian Oil Output and OPEC+ Quotas
Current and Projected Output Figures
The IEA expects oil output from Russia, the world's third-largest producer, to reach 8.9 million bpd this year and 8.8 million bpd in 2027, down from 9.2 million bpd in 2025.
Russia's June crude production increased by 120,000 bpd from May to 8.86 million bpd, the agency said, 900,000 bpd below the quota set by the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.
Official Statements and Data Transparency
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged last month that Russian oil production has fallen since the start of the year, blaming the decline on unplanned refinery maintenance.
Russia stopped publishing data on oil output in April 2023, a little more than a year after the start of the war in Ukraine.
Trends in Russian Oil Exports
Increase in Crude Oil Shipments
Ukraine's attacks on refineries have also led to an increase in Russian crude oil exports in recent months. Industry sources have said that shipments from Russia's western ports hit a record high in June and are expected to maintain that level in July.
Key Export Ports
Exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, reached nearly 3 million bpd in June, the sources' data showed.
IEA Export Data
The IEA put Russia's total crude oil exports in June at 5.8 million bpd, up by 620,000 bpd from May. Oil products exports declined last month by 230,000 bpd from May to 1.91 million bpd.
Reporting and Editorial Notes
(Reporting by ReutersEditing by David Goodman)