Oil Prices Decline as Demand Forecasts Lowered and US-Iran Negotiations Stall
Market Overview and Key Drivers
By Sam Li and Lewis Jackson
Oil Price Movements
BEIJING, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $1 on Thursday as forecasters lowered global oil demand projections for 2026 because of the disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, though the supply constraints from the conflict provided a floor for the market.
Brent futures dropped $1.29, or 1.5%, at $87.69 a barrel by 0100 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 1.6%, to $81.97.
Demand Forecasts and Inventory Data
OPEC and IEA Demand Outlook
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
On the same day, the International Energy Agency said it expects a 1.6 million bpd contraction in consumption this year, down from a forecast of 1 million bpd last month, because of restricted fuel supplies and higher prices from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that have curtailed demand.
US Inventory Build
Oil prices were also under pressure from a surprise build in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, which posted their largest weekly gain since January 2023 last week as exports slumped, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.
Crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, their highest since June 5, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4 million-barrel draw.
Geopolitical Factors
US-Iran Negotiations
Still, the deadlocked talks between Iran and the U.S. to end the war in the Gulf have kept prices elevated.
A senior Iranian source said on Wednesday that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Risks to Oil Supply
Shipping Attacks and Regional Security
Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, two crucial export routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas, highlight the risks that remain for crude supply from the region.
"The safety situation for navigation in these waters has further deteriorated, forcing vessels to turn off their signals, which reduces transparency in shipping and makes it more difficult for the market to track and assess actual supply levels," analysts at Haitong Futures said in a note.
(Reporting by Sam Li and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
