Italy’s Industrial Output Plunges 1.0% in June, Defying Analyst Forecasts
Industrial Output Data and Economic Impact
June Output Figures
ROME, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Italian industrial output fell 1.0% in June from the previous month, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported on Thursday, a far weaker reading than expected that darkens the outlook for the euro zone's third-largest economy.
Analyst Expectations vs. Actual Results
• A Reuters survey of 13 analysts had pointed to a 0.3% month-on-month rise in June, reversing a 0.3% decline in May.
• On a work day-adjusted year-on-year basis, output was down 0.6% in June, versus a forecast of a 1.0% increase.
Quarterly and Yearly Performance
Quarterly Trends
• Despite the June setback, in the second quarter industrial output was still up 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, following a 0.3% fall between January and March.
GDP Growth and Projections
First Half of the Year
• The Italian economy has held up better than many analysts expected in the first half of this year, with gross domestic product rising by 0.3% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second.
Government and Watchdog Forecasts
• Giorgia Meloni's government in April forecast full-year 2026 gross domestic product growth of 0.6%, but the budget watchdog UPB on Tuesday issued a significantly more upbeat projection of 0.9%.
Historical Growth
• In 2025 Italy grew by 0.5%, a third straight year of sub-1% growth.
Additional Notes
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(Reporting By Gavin Jones,graphic by Stefano Bernabei)
