What’s at Stake in Armenia’s Crucial 2024 Parliamentary Election?
By Lucy Papachristou
Main Issues Shaping Armenia's 2024 Parliamentary Election
YEREVAN, June 5 (Reuters) - Armenia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday that pits the governing Civil Contract party, which is pursuing closer ties with the West, against an array of opposition parties, many of which are pro-Russian.
Opinion polls predict Civil Contract, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will emerge as the largest party, but it could fall short of the two-thirds majority necessary to make changes to the constitution.
Here's what to look out for:
Referendum on Peace Deal
Progress Toward Peace with Azerbaijan
* Civil Contract, in power since 2018, has been touting its progress towards a peace deal with Azerbaijan after Pashinyan signed an initial agreement with Baku at the White House last August.
Criticism of Pashinyan's Approach
* Many analysts describe the election as a referendum on Pashinyan's handling of the peace process, with his critics saying he has conceded too much to Azerbaijan.
Background of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
* A landlocked country of around 3 million, Armenia has been at on-and-off war with Azerbaijan since the late 1980s, mostly over the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
* Baku retook full control of Karabakh in a lightning offensive in 2023, causing nearly all of the region's 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia.
Russian Pressure
Economic Leverage and Threats
* Russia has been dialling up pressure on Armenia in the lead-up to the vote, restricting a wide array of Armenian exports to Russian markets and threatening to cut off cheap supplies of its oil and gas.
* Armenia sent about a third of its exports to Russia last year and also imports the overwhelming majority of its gas from there. Russia also keeps a large military base in Armenia.
Political Maneuvering and Disinformation
* Russia threatened last week to suspend Armenia from a Moscow-led economic union for seeking European Union membership, and has called on Yerevan to hold a popular referendum to decide on its future direction.
* Armenian civil society groups have raised alarm over what they say are Russian state-sponsored disinformation efforts in the lead-up to the election. Moscow routinely denies it meddles in other countries' internal affairs.
Warming to the West
European Union Accession and Partnerships
* Armenia last year adopted a law to launch its European Union accession process, and Pashinyan has sought to project Armenia as a key partner for Europe in the South Caucasus.
Strategic Infrastructure and U.S. Cooperation
* Part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement sees a proposed transit corridor built across Armenian territory to better connect Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia.
* An agreement signed with U.S. Vice President JD Vance during a visit this year to Yerevan could pave the way for an American company to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.
Pro-Russian Opposition
Key Opposition Figures and Parties
* Armenia's opposition is dominated by pro-Russian groups, several of which are tied to unpopular former presidents.
* The biggest challenger is the Strong Armenia party, led by an Armenian-Russian billionaire who is currently on trial for making calls to overthrow the government.
Opposition Platform and Criticism
* Strong Armenia is running on a pro-business platform and wants Armenia to keep its traditionally close relationship with Moscow, accusing Pashinyan of attempting to stoke war with Russia.
Normalisation with Azerbaijan and Turkey
Peace Agreement and Constitutional Challenges
* Yerevan and Baku reached a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in August but have yet to sign a formal deal. Azerbaijan is demanding Armenia first change some wording in its constitution, which Yerevan says it is willing to do. Should Pashinyan fail to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, this pledge would be difficult for him to fulfil, and peace efforts could stall.
Border Status and Progress with Turkey
* Armenia's borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have been closed for decades, with the latter shuttering its frontier in 1993 in solidarity with its key ally Baku over the Karabakh issue.
* Progress has been made recently towards normalisation with Ankara, including in trade, but in general the process has been slow.
(Reporting by Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Alex Richardson)
