Extreme Heat Threatens Germany’s Economy With $131 Billion Loss by 2030
Economic Impact of Extreme Heat on Germany
Projected Financial Losses
BERLIN, May 28 (Reuters) - Extreme heat could cost Germany up to $131 billion by 2030 and shave up to 3% off economic output if recent heat wave patterns persist, an analysis from Allianz Trade showed on Thursday.
Loss Estimates and Contributing Factors
• Germany faces losses of up to $131 billion between 2026 and 2030 if heat waves seen in the past decade recur, the study showed
• Rising temperatures cut productivity and push up energy costs, weighing on companies and investment, it added
• Output losses of up to 3% of GDP are possible by 2030, placing Germany in the middle of Europe but on the losing side
Comparative Regional Effects
Europe and Global Adaptation
• Southern Europe remains the hardest hit, while hotter regions outside Europe have adapted more to extreme heat
Sector-Specific Impacts
Productivity and Energy Costs
• Hamburg-based Allianz Trade said productivity drops by about 3% for each degree above 30°C, while energy costs rise roughly 1.2% per degree due to cooling needs
Public Finances
Tax Revenue and Fiscal Balance
• Heat also strains public finances, lowering tax revenues by about 0.7% annually and worsening Germany's fiscal balance by around 0.9% of GDP per year, the analysis showed
Future Outlook
Adaptation as a Competitiveness Factor
• Allianz Trade said adapting economies to extreme heat will become a key competitiveness factor
(Writing by Friederike HeineEditing by Madeline Chambers)
