Published : 4 weeks ago, on 19/11/2024

By Pavel Polityuk

KYIV (Reuters) – Ukraine’s wheat harvest may increase to up to 25 million metric tons next year from an expected 22 million tons this year thanks to a larger sowing area, the first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters in an interview.

In the first official forecast for next year’s harvest, Vysotskiy said the sowing area could reach 5 million hectares in 2025 versus 4.6 million in 2024.

Ukraine, a global major grain grower and exporter, used to sow six million hectares of winter wheat before the Russian invasion in 2022 but reduced the area sharply after large areas have either been occupied or mined.

Ukraine harvested 22 million tons of wheat in 2024 versus average harvests of 25-28 million tons before the war.

“If we take into account the average yield, we would have at least 22 million tons (of wheat), but if the weather is positive, it could be 25 million tons,” Vysotskiy said.

“The area has grown – half a million hectares is significant. In fact, it will be up to 5 million hectares,” he added.

Winter wheat generally accounts for 95% of overall Ukrainian wheat output each year.

Vysotskiy said most of the sowing area had emerged so far, but the harvest would depend on the weather in winter and spring.

A record drought this summer and autumn led many farmers to sow grain in dry soil in the hope that autumn rains and a mild winter would allow seeds to germinate and produce a good crop.

The Ukrainian national agricultural academy said that weather in October, as well as September, was unfavourable for development of winter crops, most of which lack moisture.

State weather forecasters last month said that most of Ukraine’s winter crop was under threat, with almost all seedlings underdeveloped.

“On all territories wheat has grown, germination is more than 90%. The question is what will happen next. As of today, there is no apocalyptic scenario,” Vysotskiy said.

MORE CORN, LESS SOY

Ukraine is a traditional grower and exporter of corn, but difficulties in exports forced farmers to cut the sown area sharply to 3.9 million hectares in 2024 from 5.5 million hectares in 2021.

Farmers also increased the area under soybeans seeking more profit from high prices, taking the country’s soybean output to an all-time high of 6 million tons this year.

Vysotskiy said a large harvest had caused a decrease in prices and farmers would return to corn in 2025.

“We see that corn prices are holding high and soybeans are down because we have overproduction of soybeans. Corn could add 0.5 million hectares in 2025, while soybeans could lose 0.5 million hectares,” Vysotskiy said.

He added that the area under sunflower would be stable at up to 5.5 million hectares in 2025.

(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk; editing by David Evans)