EU Officials: French and German Elections Unlikely to Derail Ukraine Support
European Resilience Amid Political Shifts and Support for Ukraine
By John Irish and Tom Balmforth
UNITED NATIONS, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Senior European officials sought to play down fears that potential election victories by Ukraine-sceptic parties in France and Germany could undermine support for Kyiv, arguing the EU remains resilient enough to weather shifts in member states.
Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, officials acknowledged risks posed by shifting electoral tides but said support for Kyiv would endure as Ukraine heads into a difficult winter facing military and funding shortfalls.
Official Statements on Continued Support
"We are following the political developments in Europe," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said, acknowledging elections were one of the factors shaping calculations about future support.
He said backing for Ukraine would endure even if some countries became less committed: "If someone additionally will fall from those strong supporters of Ukraine, others will stand because this is in our interest."
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said concerns about elections should not distract Europe from Ukraine's immediate needs. "The main thing is not only about elections, it's about Ukraine," he said.
On his visit to Kyiv in August, he said, Ukrainian officials were increasingly worried about winter, particularly shortages of air defence capabilities and funding needed to expand long-range strike programmes.
"President (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy has said to us as well that please let's push all different political frames to have real deliveries for this time because this can be the darkest hour for Ukraine," Tsahkna said. "So it is not our luxury to think about what kind of elections we have next year."
Political Dynamics in France and Germany
Le Pen Offers Nuance, AfD Stirs Fears
In France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said on Thursday that, if elected president, she would continue training Ukrainian troops, supplying military equipment and supporting the so-called Coalition of the Willing.
But she said the era of blank cheques for Kyiv would be over.
"We can no longer provide financial support to Ukraine. We regret this, but we simply no longer have the means to do so," she said.
The position marks a shift by National Rally away from its past affinity with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggests that, in practice, a Le Pen presidency might produce less change in French policy towards Ukraine than many allies once feared.
France has been one of Ukraine's strongest political backers, but its bilateral financial assistance this year has amounted to only a few hundred million euros, well below the contributions of some other major European allies.
German Far-Right Gains and Policy Concerns
In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won two regional elections in eastern Germany this month and leads national opinion polls.
The party has criticised Chancellor Friedrich Merz's support for Ukraine, estimated at more than 12 billion euros ($13.68 billion) this year, as costly and unnecessarily provocative towards Moscow, while making the restoration of energy ties with Russia a central policy goal.
"The nationalist forces in France seem to have understood something ... so that's a plus side," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told Reuters. "But in Germany we have a pro-Russian far right that seems to be reviving German nationalism, which we're concerned about."
Historical Perspective on European Political Shocks
Several officials said past political shocks had failed to trigger the policy reversals many had feared.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said voters across Europe had backed parties in the past that were expected to weaken support for Kyiv, only for those fears to prove to be overblown.
"In democracy, you always live with a pendulum, you know, swinging from left to the right, sometimes to the extremes," he said in an interview. "People were afraid when (Italian Prime Minister) Giorgia Meloni was elected that this would have ramifications on Ukraine or Europe, (but) it's only really had positive ramifications, especially on Ukraine."
Nordic and Eastern European Support
Shouldering More of the Burden
Stubb said countries on NATO's eastern flank would remain the backbone of support for Ukraine, even if enthusiasm waned elsewhere.
"What you'll probably end up seeing is the flank states continuing their support, so the ones that are close to Russia and close to Ukraine, and then a certain distance being taken from elsewhere," he said.
But any shift would be one of degree rather than a fundamental change, he said.
"Ukraine is not going to stand and fall based on this risk," Stubb said. "I feel that Ukraine is in a better place politically, militarily and financially than at any time during this war."
Ukrainian Perspective on European Elections
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha struck a similar note, saying Kyiv was closely watching election cycles across Europe but remained confident in long-term support.
"Of course there are some risks," he said, warning against turning Ukraine into a domestic political battleground. "But I believe in European wisdom."
($1 = 0.8774 euros)
(Reporting by John Irish and Tom Balmforth; Editing by Howard Goller)
