GBAF Logo
Global Banking & Finance Awards® 2026 Nominations open, free to enter Nominate now →
ECB's Kocher sees currently no second-round effects from Iran war, but bank is ready to act - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
Finance

ECB's Kocher sees currently no second-round effects from Iran war, but bank is ready to act

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on July 15, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: July 15, 2026

Add as preferred source on Google

ECB Sees No Immediate Second-Round Effects From Iran War, Remains Vigilant

ECB's Assessment of the Iran Conflict's Economic Impact

BERLIN, July 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank currently sees no second-round effects from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, but is paying close attention to indirect price effects from the conflict, ECB policymaker Martin Kocher said in an interview published on Wednesday.

Monitoring Indirect Price Effects

"At the moment we are paying particular attention to the indirect price effects of the war in the Middle East and possible second-round effects. We currently see no second-round effects, but must also align our monetary policy with inflation expectations," Kocher told German financial newspaper Börsen-Zeitung.

Uncertainty and Policy Readiness

The situation is marked by high uncertainty as the intensity of the conflict keeps changing, the Austrian central bank governor said.

Monetary Policy Response

"Therefore we are ready at any time to deploy monetary policy measures, should that be necessary," he said.

Resilience of the Euro Area

The euro area is getting through this difficult phase fairly resiliently, though the longer the Iran war lasts, the more difficult it will become, Kocher added.

Inflation Expectations and Confidence

Medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, which is a sign of confidence in the determination of monetary policy, he said.

Reporting Credits

(Reporting by Kirsti Knolle; Editing by Thomas Derpinghaus and Kevin Buckland)

Key Takeaways

  • Kocher confirms no detected second‑round inflation effects so far, while monitoring indirect input‑cost and price spillovers (e.g. from energy) (ecb.europa.eu)
  • ECB’s macro projections include scenarios with higher second‑round effects; bank is prepared to deploy policy measures if needed to anchor inflation expectations (ecb.europa.eu)
  • Firms’ short‑term inflation expectations rose post‑war outbreak, but medium‑ and long‑term expectations remain anchored, and ECB views euro area resilience as intact (ecb.europa.eu)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ECB's current stance on the economic impact of the Iran war?
The ECB currently sees no second-round effects on the Eurozone from the Iran war, but is closely monitoring indirect price effects.
How has the conflict in the Middle East affected inflation expectations in the euro area?
Medium- and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, demonstrating confidence in ECB monetary policy.
Is the ECB prepared to take action if the situation worsens?
Yes, the ECB is ready to deploy monetary policy measures at any time if necessary.
Who made these statements on behalf of the ECB?
ECB policymaker and Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher made these statements.
How resilient is the euro area to the Iran war's uncertainty?
The euro area is currently managing the uncertainty with resilience, according to Kocher, but prolonged conflict could pose greater challenges.

Tags

Related Articles

More from Finance

Explore more articles in the Finance category