Published : 4 weeks ago, on 08/11/2024

By Karen Brettell and Stefano Rebaudo

(Reuters) – The dollar rose on Friday and was heading for a slight weekly gain as investors evaluated the likely impact on the American economy of Tuesday’s election of Republican Donald Trump as U.S. president.

Analysts expect Trump’s policy proposals — including more trade tariffs, a clampdown on illegal immigration, lower taxes and business deregulation — to boost growth and inflation.

But in the near term there remains considerable uncertainty over what policies will be introduced, and whether discussion of some strategies like tariffs could be negotiating tactics.

“We don’t really know how much was campaign rhetoric, how much is a negotiating position, how much of it is speaking principle,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“Part of the volatility we’re seeing in the dollar and in interest rates is that the market is trying to figure it out.”

Republicans also won control of the Senate and are leading the race for the House of Representatives, with some races remaining to be called.

The dollar index jumped to a four-month high of 105.44 on Wednesday, but has dipped since, partly due to profit taking. It was up 0.33% on the day at 104.75 on Friday and on pace for a 0.45% weekly increase.

We need more clarity about U.S. policies,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at Bank of America. “Until then, the greenback will be trading (on) data and expectations for the Fed easing path.”

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, which had been widely expected. But Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would not speculate on the impact of any policies by the incoming U.S. government.

Traders are pricing in 68% odds that the Fed will cut again by 25 basis points in December, down from 83% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The euro dropped 0.52% to $1.0748 and was headed for an 0.8% decline for the week, which saw the collapse of Germany’s coalition government on Wednesday.

Against the Japanese currency, the greenback fell 0.21% to 152.61 yen.

The yen is expected to suffer as the interest rate differential with the United States widens, which could prompt Japan’s central bank to raise rates as soon as December to prevent the currency from sliding back toward three-decade lows.

China’s yuan weakened after Beijing unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth.

“Markets may have been hoping for a larger-than-expected stimulus,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

The offshore yuan was last down 0.56% at 7.19 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for its Chinese counterpart, fell 1.09% to $0.6605.

Bitcoin fell 0.33% to $75,719.70, after reaching a record $76,980 on Thursday.

Trump is expected to enact a more favorable regulatory environment for the crypto industry.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell and Stefano Rebaudo; editing by Jonathan Oatis)