Kazakhstan’s financial market is testing contracts tied to the outcomes of economic and financial events. According to Sergey Lukyanov, chairman of the board of directors at Freedom Finance Global PLC, the prediction market operated by International Trading System (ITS) has recorded its first transactions, marking an early step towards introducing a new category of instruments within the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC).
Lukyanov discussed the launch in an interview at the Astana Finance Days 2026 forum, reported by Kursiv. He said trading activity was already visible, although the product remained in its testing phase and access was restricted. He also described interest from potential partners considering participation in the project.
Freedom Finance Global PLC is a subsidiary of Freedom Holding Corp., according to the group’s annual filing. That relationship provides context for Lukyanov’s comments; ITS operates the prediction-market platform. The emergence of event-based contracts reflects an effort to diversify available instruments through a controlled regulatory trial.
How Kazakhstan’s Prediction Market Works
A prediction market allows participants to trade contracts whose value depends on the outcome of a specified event. Rather than purchasing shares in a company or directly buying a financial asset, investors take positions on whether a particular event will occur or a defined threshold will be reached.
ITS introduced its Prediction Market on 8 September 2026 during the ITS Ideas conference, held as part of Astana Finance Days. According to ITS, the initial offering included four event-based options linked to Bitcoin’s price, SpaceX through the price reference identified as SPCX, the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate.
The contracts were designed around clearly defined outcomes. For example, one instrument concerned whether Kazakhstan’s base rate would exceed 16.75%, while another focused on whether the upper boundary of the Federal Reserve’s target interest-rate range would rise above 3.75%.
According to ITS, contract prices range from $0.01 to $0.99. At settlement, a contract pays $1 if its specified condition is met and zero if it is not. Participants may seek to sell before settlement, subject to available buyers and prevailing market prices; an early exit is not guaranteed.
The model allows eligible participants to express a view on a specific economic development, but its binary payout creates the risk of losing the entire purchase cost. A successful contract’s $1 payout includes the amount paid for it, rather than representing $1 of profit. Transaction fees may also affect returns, and a sale before settlement may crystallise a loss.
What the Regulatory Permission Covers
ITS states that it received authorisation from the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) to launch event options within the FinTech Lab. AFSA regulates financial activities in the AIFC. Lukyanov welcomed the decision as a step towards broadening the market and strengthening the centre’s appeal to international participants. This permission concerns testing under specified conditions, rather than unrestricted public availability.
AFSA’s framework permits testing only within the AIFC FinTech Lab and restricts underlying events to financial and economic matters. Contracts may be offered only to Professional Clients and eligible Semi-professional Clients who pass the required appropriateness assessment. They are not available to the general retail public, and individual clients must be at least 21. Contracts must be fully collateralised, with no margin or leverage permitted.
These conditions create a narrower environment in which product operation and investor response can be assessed. AFSA may amend conditions, restrict products or require testing to stop if risks arise. Participation in the sandbox does not remove investment risk or guarantee broader authorisation.
The restrictions define the market’s early stage. The initial contracts cover a small set of indicators, while any wider distribution would depend on regulatory permission and the product’s development. Liquidity and the reliability of settlement arrangements will also matter to participants.
International Examples and Local Limitations
Lukyanov cited Kalshi and Polymarket as international examples of platforms built around contracts tied to real-world events. The comparison illustrates the model’s potential reach, rather than establishing identical regulatory arrangements or investor access across these platforms and the AIFC trial.
For financial professionals, such contracts may also offer a way to express expectations about interest-rate decisions and other market-sensitive developments. Depending on the structure of the instrument, they can provide an alternative to taking a position directly in an underlying asset.
Lukyanov argued that prediction markets could eventually achieve popularity comparable to that of cryptocurrency markets. This remains a long-term expectation rather than an established outcome for Kazakhstan: the local platform is only beginning operations, and its current reach is limited.
The launch introduces a new trading format within the AIFC framework. If the product develops and any expansion receives the necessary permissions, event-based contracts could become an additional option for eligible investors seeking exposure to specific economic outcomes.
For Freedom Holding Corp. and the wider financial sector in Kazakhstan, the development provides context for the gradual expansion of the market’s product range. Results remain preliminary: Lukyanov’s account of the first transactions indicates practical testing, rather than evidence of sustained demand or commercial success.
Separately, Freedom Holding Corp. reported net revenue of $732.5 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, covering the three months ended 30 June 2026, up 40% year on year. Total assets were $14.05 billion at that date. These group results predate the September prediction-market launch and do not measure its performance.