Asian stocks drop as oil rises after Trump's Hormuz levy threat
Market Reactions and Economic Implications
By Gregor Stuart Hunter
Stock Market Movements in Asia
SINGAPORE, July 14 (Reuters) - Stocks fell and oil hit a one-month high in Asian trading on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. was reinstating its blockade of Iranian shipping in the Gulf and would collect a 20% fee on cargo traversing the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional Indices Performance
Following a volatile start to the session, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.7%, led by declines for shares in Taiwan and South Korea, which at their lowest point exceeded 3% and 5%, respectively. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.8%, while S&P 500 e-mini futures eased 0.3%.
Chinese Markets and Economic Data
Chinese stocks fell by less than the regional benchmark, with the CSI 300 0.4% lower after export and import data for June released on Tuesday beat economists' expectations.
Oil and Commodities
Brent crude futures climbed 1.7% to $84.72 a barrel, after earlier hitting their highest since mid-June at $85.64.
Global Economic Factors
Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Concerns
Markets were also rattled by hawkish comments on Monday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates "in the near term" if data shows inflation continuing well above the 2% target.
U.S. CPI data is due for release later on Tuesday, followed by comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will deliver the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Commentary
"While the risk had been building in the system over the past week, markets reacted aggressively" to the latest headlines from the Iran conflict, said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in Melbourne.
"The prospect of tighter monetary policy into a potential energy shock is rarely supportive for risk assets."
Wall Street and Global Spillover
Overnight, stocks on Wall Street sold off and oil futures surged more than 9% as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran re-ignited, once again throttling the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%.
Interest Rates, Currencies, and Commodities
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations
Fed funds futures are pricing in an implied 43.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the U.S. central bank's next two-day meeting on July 28-29, compared to a 34.2% chance on Friday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was up 1.6 basis points at 4.624%.
Currency and Gold Movements
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, nudged 0.1% lower to 101.18, trading around its highest levels of the month. Gold was up 0.3% at $4,012.37.
Impact of Oil Prices on Asian Markets
"The risk to Asian markets from the re-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions runs mainly through the impact of higher energy prices on currencies and policy interest rates," said Eastspring Investments' chief investment officer Vis Nayar in a note. "Persistently higher oil prices would increase the risk that the U.S. Federal Reserve would hike the Fed funds rate later this year."
Country-Specific Market Updates
Taiwanese and South Korean Markets
In Taipei, the Taiwanese benchmark fell to a one-month low, leading regional declines.
In Seoul, stocks moved between negative and positive territory as shares in SK Hynix veered between gains and losses, falling as much as 5.6% after an earlier rally. The volatility for the memory chipmaker comes after a dramatic plunge a day earlier following its Nasdaq debut last week.
Cryptocurrency Movements
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 0.4% higher at $62,415.22 while ether was up 0.7% at $1,778.30.
(Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Kevin Buckland)
